Earnings Miss: Höegh Autoliners ASA Missed EPS By 5.9% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

It's been a good week for Höegh Autoliners ASA (OB:HAUTO) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 6.4% to kr104. It looks like the results were a bit of a negative overall. While revenues of US$328m were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings were less than expected, missing estimates by 5.9% to hit US$0.60 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for Höegh Autoliners

Taking into account the latest results, Höegh Autoliners' four analysts currently expect revenues in 2024 to be US$1.44b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory per-share earnings are expected to be US$3.02, roughly flat on the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.46b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.11 in 2024. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at kr156, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Höegh Autoliners, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at kr169 and the most bearish at kr135 per share. We would probably assign less value to the analyst forecasts in this situation, because such a wide range of estimates could imply that the future of this business is difficult to value accurately. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Höegh Autoliners' past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Höegh Autoliners' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 1.4% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 4.6% over the past year. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 0.8% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Höegh Autoliners' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at kr156, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Höegh Autoliners going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Höegh Autoliners (including 2 which are potentially serious) .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.