Rana Gruber (OB:RANA) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of RANA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

RANA (NOK50.7) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (NOK217.08)

RANA fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	5/6
Future Growth	1/6
Past Performance	4/6
Financial Health	6/6
Dividends	4/6

RANA Stock Overview

Rana Gruber AS engages in the mining, production, and sale of iron ore concentrate primarily to steel producers and the chemical industry.

Rewards

Trading at 76.6% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings have grown 59.1% per year over the past 5 years

Risk Analysis

Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 0.8% per year for the next 3 years

Unstable dividend track record

Rana Gruber Competitors

Nordic Mining

OB:NOM

kr728.3m

Elopak

OB:ELO

kr5.1b

Norske Skog

OB:NSKOG

kr6.6b

Ramada Investimentos e Industria

ENXTLS:RAM

€180.0m

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Rana Gruber
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	kr50.70
52 Week High	kr70.91
52 Week Low	kr36.80
Beta	0
1 Month Change	13.30%
3 Month Change	-9.46%
1 Year Change	-25.33%
3 Year Change	n/a
5 Year Change	n/a
Change since IPO	-23.07%

Shareholder Returns

	RANA	NO Metals and Mining	NO Market
7D	5.5%	6.2%	1.9%
1Y	-25.3%	7.1%	9.8%

Return vs Industry: RANA underperformed the Norwegian Metals and Mining industry which returned 4.7% over the past year.

Return vs Market: RANA underperformed the Norwegian Market which returned 8.7% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is RANA's price volatile compared to industry and market?
RANA volatility
RANA Average Weekly Movement	4.9%
Metals and Mining Industry Average Movement	6.0%
Market Average Movement	6.8%
10% most volatile stocks in NO Market	12.5%
10% least volatile stocks in NO Market	3.7%

Stable Share Price: RANA is less volatile than 75% of Norwegian stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 5% a week.

Volatility Over Time: RANA's weekly volatility (5%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1937	300	Gunnar Moe	https://ranagruber.no

Rana Gruber AS engages in the mining, production, and sale of iron ore concentrate primarily to steel producers and the chemical industry. It excavates, processes, and sells iron oxide in the form of hematite, magnetite, and iron oxide pigments. The company also produces and sells micronized iron oxides and other dissemination of iron ore for paint manufactures, as well as building and automotive industries.

Rana Gruber Fundamentals Summary

How do Rana Gruber's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
RANA fundamental statistics
Market Cap	kr1.88b
Earnings (TTM)	kr438.54m
Revenue (TTM)	kr1.67b

4.3x

P/E Ratio

1.1x

P/S Ratio

Is RANA overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
RANA income statement (TTM)
Revenue	kr1.67b
Cost of Revenue	kr299.91m
Gross Profit	kr1.37b
Other Expenses	kr936.20m
Earnings	kr438.54m

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

Aug 24, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)	11.83
Gross Margin	82.09%
Net Profit Margin	26.19%
Debt/Equity Ratio	0%

How did RANA perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

18.4%

Current Dividend Yield

72%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is RANA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for RANA?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for RANA. This is calculated by dividing RANA's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is RANA's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	kr1.88b

RANA key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.1x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	2.1x
PEG Ratio	-5.2x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does RANA's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

RANA PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for RANA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	28.3x
NOM Nordic Mining	3.6x	n/a	kr728.3m
ELO Elopak	95.1x	75.1%	kr5.1b
NSKOG Norske Skog	5x	-16.2%	kr6.6b
RAM Ramada Investimentos e Industria	9.5x	-27.7%	€180.0m
RANA Rana Gruber	4.3x	-0.8%	kr1.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: RANA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4.3x) compared to the peer average (28.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does RANA's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Metals and Mining Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: RANA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4.3x) compared to the European Metals and Mining industry average (5.4x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is RANA's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

RANA PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	4.3x
Fair PE Ratio	8.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: RANA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.9x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of RANA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: RANA (NOK50.7) is trading below our estimate of fair value (NOK217.08)

Significantly Below Fair Value: RANA is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Future Growth

How is Rana Gruber forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 2 analysts?

Future Growth Score

1/6

Future Growth Score 1/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

-0.8%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: RANA's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-0.8% per year).

Earnings vs Market: RANA's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-0.8% per year).

High Growth Earnings: RANA's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: RANA's revenue is expected to decline over the next 3 years (-3.9% per year).

High Growth Revenue: RANA's revenue is forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-3.9% per year).

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: RANA's Return on Equity is forecast to be very high in 3 years time (53.6%).

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Past Performance

How has Rana Gruber performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

4/6

Past Performance Score 4/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

59.1%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: RANA has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: RANA's current net profit margins (26.2%) are higher than last year (24.1%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: RANA's earnings have grown significantly by 59.1% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: RANA's earnings growth over the past year (1%) is below its 5-year average (59.1% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: RANA earnings growth over the past year (1%) underperformed the Metals and Mining industry 96.2%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: RANA's Return on Equity (82.6%) is considered outstanding.

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Financial Health

How is Rana Gruber's financial position?

Financial Health Score

6/6

Financial Health Score 6/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: RANA's short term assets (NOK530.8M) exceed its short term liabilities (NOK421.0M).

Long Term Liabilities: RANA's short term assets (NOK530.8M) exceed its long term liabilities (NOK143.4M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: RANA is debt free.

Reducing Debt: RANA had no debt 5 years ago.

Debt Coverage: RANA has no debt, therefore it does not need to be covered by operating cash flow.

Interest Coverage: RANA has no debt, therefore coverage of interest payments is not a concern.

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Rana Gruber current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

4/6

Dividend Score 4/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

18.38%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: RANA's dividend (18.38%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the Norwegian market (2.67%).

High Dividend: RANA's dividend (18.38%) is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the Norwegian market (6.77%)

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Too early to tell whether RANA's dividend payments have been stable as they only just started paying a dividend.

Growing Dividend: Too early to tell if RANA's dividend payments are increasing as they only just started paying a dividend.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its reasonable payout ratio (72.4%), RANA's dividend payments are covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its reasonable cash payout ratio (62.1%), RANA's dividend payments are covered by cash flows.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

5.6yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Gunnar Moe

5.58yrs

Tenure

Mr. Gunnar Moe is Chief Executive Officer at Rana Gruber AS since 2017. He served as the Chief Executive Officer of MOMEK Group AS. Mr. Moe served as the Chief Executive Officer of Rana Gruber AS from 2010...

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: RANA's management team is seasoned and experienced (5.6 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: RANA's board of directors are not considered experienced ( 2.2 years average tenure), which suggests a new board.

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/08/11 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/08/11 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31