A Look At The Fair Value Of Kværner ASA (OB:KVAER)

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Kværner ASA (OB:KVAER) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. I will be using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company’s value, and a DCF is just one method. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Check out our latest analysis for Kværner

Is Kværner fairly valued?

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company’s cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren’t available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow are will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today’s value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Levered FCF (NOK, Millions) -øre235.7 øre155 øre330 øre320 øre315 øre314 øre314 øre316 øre319 øre323
Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x3 Analyst x2 Analyst x4 Est @ -2.87% Est @ -1.48% Est @ -0.51% Est @ 0.17% Est @ 0.65% Est @ 0.98% Est @ 1.21%
Present Value (NOK, Millions) Discounted @ 8% -øre218.2 øre132 øre262 øre235 øre215 øre198 øre183 øre171 øre160 øre150

Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF)= NOK1.49b

“Est” = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country’s GDP growth. In this case we have used the 10-year government bond rate (1.8%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year ‘growth’ period, we discount future cash flows to today’s value, using a cost of equity of 8%.

Terminal Value (TV) = FCF2029 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = øre323m × (1 + 1.8%) ÷ (8% – 1.8%) = øre5.3b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV) = TV / (1 + r)10 = NOKøre5.3b ÷ ( 1 + 8%)10 = NOK2.44b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is NOK3.93b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. This results in an intrinsic value estimate of NOK14.67. Compared to the current share price of NOK12.86, the company appears about fair value at a 12% discount to what it is available for right now. The assumptions in a DCF have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

OB:KVAER Intrinsic value, April 23rd 2019
OB:KVAER Intrinsic value, April 23rd 2019

Important assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. If you don’t agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company’s future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company’s potential performance. Given that we are looking at Kværner as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we’ve used 8%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.047. Beta is a measure of a stock’s volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Next Steps:

Whilst important, DCF calculation shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to “what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?” If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Kværner, I’ve put together three further aspects you should further research:

  1. Financial Health: Does KVAER have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
  2. Future Earnings: How does KVAER’s growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
  3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Are there other high quality stocks you could be holding instead of KVAER? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the OB every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.