Lumi Gruppen (OB:LUMI) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of LUMI when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

LUMI (NOK9.1) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (NOK148.6)

LUMI fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	4/6
Future Growth	4/6
Past Performance	5/6
Financial Health	2/6
Dividends	4/6

LUMI Stock Overview

Lumi Gruppen AS operates in the education market in Norway.

Rewards

Trading at 93.9% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 37.38% per year

Earnings grew by 1353% over the past year

Risk Analysis

Highly volatile share price over the past 3 months

Has a high level of debt

Unstable dividend track record

Does not have a meaningful market cap (NOK328M)

Lumi Gruppen Competitors

Success Prime

TWSE:2496

NT$872.9m

TACLtd

TSE:4319

JP¥4.0b

Seigakusya

TSE:2179

JP¥3.9b

Sino Tactful

TPEX:5481

NT$856.8m

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Lumi Gruppen
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	kr9.10
52 Week High	kr71.00
52 Week Low	kr7.70
Beta	0
1 Month Change	-56.67%
3 Month Change	-72.26%
1 Year Change	-86.81%
3 Year Change	n/a
5 Year Change	n/a
Change since IPO	-84.04%

Recent News & Updates

May 31

Lumi Gruppen (OB:LUMI) Might Have The Makings Of A Multi-Bagger

There are a few key trends to look for if we want to identify the next multi-bagger. In a perfect world, we'd like to...

Shareholder Returns

	LUMI	NO Consumer Services	NO Market
7D	13.2%	0.8%	1.3%
1Y	-86.8%	-21.5%	9.3%

Return vs Industry: LUMI underperformed the Norwegian Consumer Services industry which returned -21.8% over the past year.

Return vs Market: LUMI underperformed the Norwegian Market which returned 9.8% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is LUMI's price volatile compared to industry and market?
LUMI volatility
LUMI Average Weekly Movement	22.7%
Consumer Services Industry Average Movement	7.9%
Market Average Movement	6.7%
10% most volatile stocks in NO Market	12.4%
10% least volatile stocks in NO Market	3.7%

Stable Share Price: LUMI is more volatile than 90% of Norwegian stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 23% a week.

Volatility Over Time: LUMI's weekly volatility has increased from 12% to 23% over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1989	288	Erik Brandt	https://lumigruppen.no

Lumi Gruppen AS operates in the education market in Norway. The company operates through two segments, Sonans and Oslo Nye Hoyskole (ONH). It provides online studies in the fields of psychology, health, social sciences, and business and administration, as well as vocational IT education services.

Lumi Gruppen Fundamentals Summary

How do Lumi Gruppen's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
LUMI fundamental statistics
Market Cap	kr327.60m
Earnings (TTM)	kr56.72m
Revenue (TTM)	kr530.47m

5.8x

P/E Ratio

0.6x

P/S Ratio

Is LUMI overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
LUMI income statement (TTM)
Revenue	kr530.47m
Cost of Revenue	kr256.34m
Gross Profit	kr274.13m
Other Expenses	kr217.41m
Earnings	kr56.72m

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

Aug 17, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)	1.58
Gross Margin	51.68%
Net Profit Margin	10.69%
Debt/Equity Ratio	79.2%

How did LUMI perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

11.0%

Current Dividend Yield

63%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is LUMI undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for LUMI?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for LUMI. This is calculated by dividing LUMI's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is LUMI's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	kr327.60m

LUMI key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.4x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	7.1x
PEG Ratio	0.2x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does LUMI's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

LUMI PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for LUMI vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	11.4x
2496 Success Prime	15.1x	n/a	NT$872.9m
4319 TACLtd	10.9x	n/a	JP¥4.0b
2179 Seigakusya	12.3x	n/a	JP¥3.9b
5481 Sino Tactful	7.2x	n/a	NT$856.8m
LUMI Lumi Gruppen	5.8x	37.4%	kr327.6m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: LUMI is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.8x) compared to the peer average (11.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does LUMI's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Consumer Services Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: LUMI is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.8x) compared to the European Consumer Services industry average (20.1x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is LUMI's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

LUMI PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	5.8x
Fair PE Ratio	n/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate LUMI's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of LUMI when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: LUMI (NOK9.1) is trading below our estimate of fair value (NOK148.6)

Significantly Below Fair Value: LUMI is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Insufficient data to show price forecast.

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Future Growth

How is Lumi Gruppen forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 1 analyst?

Future Growth Score

4/6

Future Growth Score 4/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

37.4%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: LUMI's forecast earnings growth (37.4% per year) is above the savings rate (1.1%).

Earnings vs Market: LUMI's earnings (37.4% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the Norwegian market (0.2% per year).

High Growth Earnings: LUMI's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: LUMI's revenue (9.5% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the Norwegian market (-1% per year).

High Growth Revenue: LUMI's revenue (9.5% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: LUMI's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (17%).

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Past Performance

How has Lumi Gruppen performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

5/6

Past Performance Score 5/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

82.3%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: LUMI has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: LUMI's current net profit margins (10.7%) are higher than last year (0.7%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: LUMI's earnings have grown significantly by 82.3% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: LUMI's earnings growth over the past year (1353%) exceeds its 5-year average (82.3% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: LUMI earnings growth over the past year (1353%) exceeded the Consumer Services industry 20.1%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: LUMI's Return on Equity (11.3%) is considered low.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is Lumi Gruppen's financial position?

Financial Health Score

2/6

Financial Health Score 2/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: LUMI's short term assets (NOK227.9M) do not cover its short term liabilities (NOK279.2M).

Long Term Liabilities: LUMI's short term assets (NOK227.9M) do not cover its long term liabilities (NOK521.0M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: LUMI's net debt to equity ratio (49.4%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: Insufficient data to determine if LUMI's debt to equity ratio has reduced over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: LUMI's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (22.4%).

Interest Coverage: LUMI's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (3.1x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Lumi Gruppen current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

4/6

Dividend Score 4/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

10.99%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: LUMI's dividend (10.99%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the Norwegian market (2.64%).

High Dividend: LUMI's dividend (10.99%) is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the Norwegian market (6.78%)

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Too early to tell whether LUMI's dividend payments have been stable as they only just started paying a dividend.

Growing Dividend: Too early to tell if LUMI's dividend payments are increasing as they only just started paying a dividend.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its reasonable payout ratio (63.5%), LUMI's dividend payments are covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its reasonably low cash payout ratio (45%), LUMI's dividend payments are well covered by cash flows.

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

CEO

Erik Brandt

no data

Tenure

Erik Brandt serves at Chief Executive Officer at Lumi Gruppen AS (formerly known as Sonans Holding AS) and served as its Head of Investor Relations and served as its Chief Financial Officer until September...

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/08/12 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/08/12 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31