These Analysts Think Nel ASA's (OB:NEL) Sales Are Under Threat

The latest analyst coverage could presage a bad day for Nel ASA (OB:NEL), with the analysts making across-the-board cuts to their statutory estimates that might leave shareholders a little shell-shocked. There was a fairly draconian cut to their revenue estimates, perhaps an implicit admission that previous forecasts were much too optimistic.

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After the downgrade, the consensus from Nel's ten analysts is for revenues of kr1.0b in 2026, which would reflect a measurable 3.2% decline in sales compared to the last year of performance. Losses are forecast to hold steady at around kr0.25 per share. Yet before this consensus update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of kr1.1b and losses of kr0.24 per share in 2026. Ergo, there's been a clear change in sentiment, with the analysts administering a notable cut to next year's revenue estimates, while at the same time increasing their loss per share forecasts.

Check out our latest analysis for Nel

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. These estimates imply that sales are expected to slow, with a forecast annualised revenue decline of 2.6% by the end of 2026. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 17% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 7.3% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Nel is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note from this downgrade is that the consensus increased its forecast losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Nel. Unfortunately analysts also downgraded their revenue estimates, and industry data suggests that Nel's revenues are expected to grow slower than the wider market. Overall, given the drastic downgrade to next year's forecasts, we'd be feeling a little more wary of Nel going forwards.

Even so, the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for the value creation of shareholders. We have estimates - from multiple Nel analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.