ASML Holding (ENXTAM:ASML) Valuation in Focus After Q3 Beat and Upbeat 2026 Sales Guidance

ASML Holding (ENXTAM:ASML) delivered higher-than-expected third-quarter earnings, fueled by strong demand for its EUV lithography systems that power the latest AI and advanced semiconductor chips. Management’s Q4 revenue guidance and outlook for 2026 sales matched or exceeded 2025, even as Chinese demand softens.

See our latest analysis for ASML Holding.

ASML’s stock has powered higher alongside recent upbeat earnings, new executive leadership, and fresh partnerships in AI. This momentum is clearly reflected in its 18.8% 1-month share price return and outstanding one-year total shareholder return of 33.1%. After a remarkable run, investors are increasingly weighing the implications of continued innovation against exposure to shifting demand in China and broader chip cycles, but the long-term growth story remains firmly intact for now.

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But after a powerful rally and robust financials, is ASML’s valuation still justified by future growth, or has the stock already run ahead of its fundamentals? This leaves investors to question if upside remains or if everything is priced in.

Most Popular Narrative: 12.4% Undervalued

ASML shares last closed at €875.7, but according to the most widely followed narrative from Investingwilly, the fair value is set much higher. The narrative points to major technological breakthroughs and robust financials as the primary drivers behind this premium.

ASML is the only company in the world producing EUV lithography tools. These machines are essential for making the world’s most powerful semiconductors. This gives ASML a near monopoly in a fast growing market driven by AI, 5G, and high performance computing.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what future trends support this bullish view? The valuation hinges on high margin growth, recurring revenue, and a global market edge that rivals can only dream about. Wonder which bold financial projections and secular tailwinds justify this price? Dig into the narrative to uncover the full investment case.

Result: Fair Value of €1,000 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty and further restrictions on exports to China could quickly shift market sentiment around ASML’s growth outlook.

Find out about the key risks to this ASML Holding narrative.

Another View: Discounted Cash Flow Model Cautions

While some see ASML as undervalued, our DCF model suggests a different story. According to the SWS DCF model, ASML is trading above its estimated fair value (€647.22). This implies it may be overvalued based on cash flow projections. Could the market be overly optimistic, or is the growth story just that compelling?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out ASML Holding for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own ASML Holding Narrative

If you have a different perspective, or simply want to dive deeper into the numbers, you can craft and share your own narrative in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding ASML Holding.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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