JDE Peet's N.V. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

JDE Peet's N.V. (AMS:JDEP) last week reported its latest yearly results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. It was not a great result overall. While revenues of €8.8b were in line with analyst predictions, earnings were less than expected, missing statutory estimates by 17% to hit €1.13 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Following the latest results, JDE Peet's' 15 analysts are now forecasting revenues of €9.55b in 2025. This would be a meaningful 8.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to bounce 26% to €1.44. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €9.48b and earnings per share (EPS) of €1.44 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

See our latest analysis for JDE Peet's

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of €22.11, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values JDE Peet's at €25.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €17.50. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The analysts are definitely expecting JDE Peet's' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 8.1% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 6.0% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 4.1% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that JDE Peet's is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on JDE Peet's. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple JDE Peet's analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also view our analysis of JDE Peet's' balance sheet, and whether we think JDE Peet's is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.