New Risk • Nov 28
New major risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 90% of Dutch stocks, typically moving 12% a week. This is considered a major risk. Share price volatility increases the risk of potential losses in the short-term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. It may also indicate the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (2.9x net interest cover). Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (12% average weekly change). Minor Risk Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (1.8% net profit margin). Announcement • Nov 28
Macquarie Asset Management Pty Limited made an offer to acquire Renewi plc (LSE:RWI) for approximately £700 million. Macquarie Asset Management Pty Limited made an offer to acquire Renewi plc (LSE:RWI) for approximately £700 million on November 28, 2024. The offer price is 870 pence cash per share. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Nov 28
Now 38% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 20% to €9.54. The fair value is estimated to be €6.92, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 3.9% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 16%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 11% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 160% in the next 2 years. New Risk • Nov 14
New minor risk - Profit margin trend The company's profit margins are lower than last year and have reduced by more than 30%. Net profit margin: 1.8% Last year net profit margin: 3.5% This is considered a minor risk. A large drop in profit margin could indicate the company does not have strong competitive advantages or it is yet to establish itself and its core business. Even if it is a well established business, this may make it a much riskier investment than one that has a combination of proven competitive advantages and a stable or growing profit margin. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (2.9x net interest cover). Minor Risk Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (1.8% net profit margin). Reported Earnings • Nov 13
First half 2025 earnings released First half 2025 results: Revenue: €874.5m (down 6.7% from 1H 2024). Net income: €13.7m (down 60% from 1H 2024). Profit margin: 1.6% (down from 3.6% in 1H 2024). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 5.3% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.1% growth forecast for the Commercial Services industry in Europe. Announcement • Oct 11
Biffa Waste Services Limited completed the acquisition of Municipal business of Renewi. Biffa Waste Services Limited entered into a binding agreement to acquire Municipal business of Renewi on May 30, 2024. The deal comprises five long-term residual waste treatment contracts serving local government customers in England and Scotland. In 2022, under the contracts, 930,000 tonnes of UK household waste were treated to avoid landfill and recover energy and raw materials. With Renewi's decision to focus on its core operations in industrial and commercial recycling in mainland Europe, around 550 Renewi staff will now become part of the Biffa group. The five contracts are with the Barnsley, Doncaster and Rotherham (BDR) Waste Partnership, Cumbria County Council, Wakefield Council, East London Waste Authority and Argyle & Bute Council. The transaction will be effectuated through a combination of a nominal cash consideration payable to Biffa and pre-completion capitalisation of UK Municipal. Capitalisation is expected to be approximately £125 million on completion which, when offset against the reduction of liabilities of £76.095 million, equates to a net cost of £48.735 million to Renewi and a total cash impact of £131.67 million, including transaction costs. Core net debt / EBITDA immediately following the transaction is expected to be approximately 2.9x, falling to our target of 2.0x in the medium-term, with improved margins and cash generation driving accelerated deleveraging. The transaction will be funded through the existing revolving credit facility, supplemented by a £102.6 million bridge facility. The Divestment provides UK Municipal customers, employees and other stakeholders with strong strategic backing from a respected scale operator in the UK market. The transaction is expected to complete before 31 December 2024, subject to receipt of a limited suite of regulatory and other consents. As of August 8, 2024, the Competition & Markets Authority approval had been given for the sale to Biffa. Greenhill & Co. International LLP acted as financial advisor to Renewi Plc
Biffa Waste Services Limited completed the acquisition of Municipal business of Renewi on October 10, 2024. Announcement • Jul 26
Renewi plc Announces Final Dividend for the Fiscal Year 2024, July 31, 2024 Renewi plc announced on 30 May 2024, and subsequently approved by shareholders at the 2024 AGM, company will pay a dividend of 5 pence per share on 31 July 2024 to the shareholders present on the Register of Members as at 28 June 2024. Shareholders on the Register of Members or holding shares in Crest will automatically receive their dividends in Pounds Sterling, shareholders who hold shares through Euroclear Nederland will automatically receive their dividends in Euros. For shareholders holding shares trading on Euronext Amsterdam and held via Euroclear Nederland, the exchange rate used to calculate the Euro equivalent dividend payment is £1: €1.1889000, being an average of exchange rates over the three trading days 22 to 24 July 2024 as sourced from the Bank of England database, equating to a dividend of €0.0594450 per share. New Risk • Jun 10
New minor risk - Profit margin trend The company's profit margins are lower than last year and have reduced by more than 30%. Net profit margin: 2.5% Last year net profit margin: 4.8% This is considered a minor risk. A large drop in profit margin could indicate the company does not have strong competitive advantages or it is yet to establish itself and its core business. Even if it is a well established business, this may make it a much riskier investment than one that has a combination of proven competitive advantages and a stable or growing profit margin. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks High level of debt (116% net debt to equity). Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (2.5% net profit margin). Price Target Changed • Jun 09
Price target decreased by 9.8% to €9.65 Down from €10.70, the current price target is an average from 5 analysts. New target price is 23% above last closing price of €7.82. Stock is up 29% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €0.69 next year compared to a net loss per share of €0.43 last year. Reported Earnings • Jun 04
Full year 2024 earnings released: €0.43 loss per share (vs €0.79 profit in FY 2023) Full year 2024 results: €0.43 loss per share (down from €0.79 profit in FY 2023). Revenue: €1.69b (down 11% from FY 2023). Net income: €42.0m (down 33% from FY 2023). Profit margin: 2.5% (down from 3.3% in FY 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 5.6% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.3% growth forecast for the Commercial Services industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 6% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 5% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Price Target Changed • Dec 28
Price target increased by 17% to €10.50 Up from €9.00, the current price target is an average from 5 analysts. New target price is 38% above last closing price of €7.59. Stock is up 11% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €0.66 for next year compared to €0.79 last year. Announcement • Oct 05
Renewi plc to Report First Half, 2024 Results on Nov 09, 2023 Renewi plc announced that they will report first half, 2024 results on Nov 09, 2023 Announcement • Sep 29
Macquarie Asset Management Considers A Possible Cash Offer for the Entire Issued and to Be Issued Share Capital of Renewi Macquarie Asset Management Inc. on behalf of one or more of its managed funds - (Macquarie) announced that it is considering a possible cash offer for the entire issued and to be issued share capital of Renewi plc (LSE:RWI) (the Company or Renewi). Macquarie has been evaluating a possible offer for Renewi and on 25 September 2023 made a proposal (the "Proposal") to the Board of Renewi (the "Board") at 775 pence per Renewi share. The Proposal was rejected by the Board. The Proposal provides a compelling opportunity for Renewi's shareholders to realise their investment for cash at a very significant premium and at an attractive multiple. Macquarie believes that Renewi's ability to deliver its stated ambition will remain constrained under the current capital structure by the limited near-term operating cash flow and limited leverage capacity. In a challenging macro and cost of capital environment, Macquarie believes the Proposal represents an attractive alternative for shareholders, attributing a full and fair valuation for the Company's future potential. The Proposal represents: a premium of approximately 52% to the closing price of 509 pence per Renewi share on 27 September 2023 (being the last business day before the date of this announcement); a premium of approximately 53% to the volume-weighted average price of 507 pence per Renewi share for the one-month period ended 27 September 2023 (being the last business day before the date of this announcement); and a premium of approximately 54% to the volume-weighted average price of 503 pence per Renewi share for the three-month period ended 27 September 2023 (being the last business day before the date of this announcement). Macquarie invites the Board to engage constructively to agree the terms of a recommended transaction to be put forward to Renewi's shareholders. Macquarie reserves the right to vary the form and /or mix of the offer consideration and /or introduce other forms of consideration. Macquarie also reserves the right to make an offer on less favourable terms than the Proposal:. with the consent of the Board; ii. if a third party announces a possible offer or firm intention to make an offer for Renewi at a lower price; or iii. if Renewi announces a Rule 9 waiver pursuant to the Code or a reverse takeover. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Sep 28
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 35% After last week's 35% share price gain to €8.14, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 11x. Average forward P/E is 12x in the Commercial Services industry in Europe. Total returns to shareholders of 213% over the past three years. Recent Insider Transactions • May 29
CFO & Director recently bought €167k worth of stock On the 26th of May, Annemieke Otter bought around 22k shares on-market at roughly €7.58 per share. This transaction increased Annemieke's direct individual holding by 1x at the time of the trade. This was the largest purchase by an insider in the last 3 months. This was Annemieke's only on-market trade for the last 12 months. Reported Earnings • May 26
Full year 2023 earnings released: EPS: €0.79 (vs €0.94 in FY 2022) Full year 2023 results: EPS: €0.79 (down from €0.94 in FY 2022). Revenue: €1.89b (up 1.2% from FY 2022). Net income: €62.9m (down 16% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 3.3% (down from 4.0% in FY 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 5.4% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 7.7% growth forecast for the Commercial Services industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 100% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 35% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Announcement • Jan 27
Renewi plc, Annual General Meeting, Jul 13, 2023 Renewi plc, Annual General Meeting, Jul 13, 2023. Price Target Changed • Jan 12
Price target increased to €10.50 Up from €8.00, the current price target is an average from 5 analysts. New target price is 43% above last closing price of €7.35. Stock is down 16% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €0.92 for next year compared to €0.93 last year. Price Target Changed • Nov 16
Price target decreased to €8.00 Down from €10.90, the current price target is an average from 5 analysts. New target price is 26% above last closing price of €6.33. Stock is down 36% over the past year. The company posted earnings per share of €0.93 last year. Reported Earnings • Nov 12
First half 2023 earnings released: EPS: €0.66 (vs €0.46 in 1H 2022) First half 2023 results: EPS: €0.66 (up from €0.46 in 1H 2022). Revenue: €952.0m (up 4.0% from 1H 2022). Net income: €52.4m (up 43% from 1H 2022). Profit margin: 5.5% (up from 4.0% in 1H 2022). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 2.4% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 6.7% growth forecast for the Commercial Services industry in Europe. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Sep 26
Investor sentiment deteriorated over the past week After last week's 15% share price decline to €6.60, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 8x. Average forward P/E is 12x in the Commercial Services industry in Europe. Total loss to shareholders of 5.8% over the past year. Board Change • Jun 01
Insufficient new directors There is 1 new director who has joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: 1 new director. 5 experienced directors. 1 highly experienced director. Independent Non-Executive Chairman Ben Verwaayen was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2020. The company’s insufficient board refreshment is considered a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Reported Earnings • May 25
Full year 2022 earnings released: EPS: €0.93 (vs €0.14 in FY 2021) Full year 2022 results: EPS: €0.93 (up from €0.14 in FY 2021). Revenue: €1.87b (up 10% from FY 2021). Net income: €74.5m (up €63.4m from FY 2021). Profit margin: 4.0% (up from 0.7% in FY 2021). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 3.7%, compared to a 21% growth forecast for the industry in the Netherlands. Board Change • May 02
Insufficient new directors There is 1 new director who has joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: 1 new director. 5 experienced directors. 1 highly experienced director. Independent Non-Executive Chairman Ben Verwaayen was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2020. The company’s insufficient board refreshment is considered a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Reported Earnings • Nov 11
First half 2022 earnings released: EPS €0.46 (vs €0.048 in 1H 2021) The company reported a strong first half result with improved earnings, revenues and profit margins. First half 2022 results: Revenue: €915.6m (up 12% from 1H 2021). Net income: €36.6m (up €32.8m from 1H 2021). Profit margin: 4.0% (up from 0.5% in 1H 2021). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Oct 08
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 18% share price gain to €8.33, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 18x. Average forward P/E is 17x in the Commercial Services industry in Europe. Total returns to shareholders of 213% over the past year. Reported Earnings • Jun 13
Full year 2021 earnings released: EPS €0.014 (vs €0.077 loss in FY 2020) The company reported a decent full year result with improved earnings and profit margins, although revenues were weaker. Full year 2021 results: Revenue: €1.69b (down 4.6% from FY 2020). Net income: €11.1m (up €72.4m from FY 2020). Profit margin: 0.7% (up from net loss in FY 2020). Reported Earnings • May 29
Full year 2021 earnings released: EPS €0.014 (vs €0.077 loss in FY 2020) The company reported a decent full year result with improved earnings and profit margins, although revenues were weaker. Full year 2021 results: Revenue: €1.69b (down 4.6% from FY 2020). Net income: €11.1m (up €72.4m from FY 2020). Profit margin: 0.7% (up from net loss in FY 2020). Is New 90 Day High Low • Mar 02
New 90-day high: €0.53 The company is up 39% from its price of €0.38 on 02 December 2020. The Dutch market is up 11% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Commercial Services industry, which is up 7.0% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is €0.073 per share. Is New 90 Day High Low • Dec 16
New 90-day high: €0.41 The company is up 79% from its price of €0.23 on 17 September 2020. The Dutch market is up 13% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Commercial Services industry, which is up 7.0% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is €0.079 per share. Reported Earnings • Nov 13
First half 2021 earnings released: EPS €0.005 The company reported a decent first half result with improved earnings and profit margins, although revenues were weaker. First half 2021 results: Revenue: €821.4m (down 10% from 1H 2020). Net income: €3.80m (up €22.8m from 1H 2020). Profit margin: 0.5% (up from net loss in 1H 2020). The move to profitability was driven by lower expenses. Is New 90 Day High Low • Nov 11
New 90-day high: €0.28 The company is up 3.0% from its price of €0.28 on 12 August 2020. The Dutch market is up 6.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. It also underperformed the Commercial Services industry, which is up 4.0% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is €0.69 per share. Is New 90 Day High Low • Sep 23
New 90-day low: €0.22 The company is down 23% from its price of €0.29 on 25 June 2020. The Dutch market is down 4.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. It also underperformed the Commercial Services industry, which is up 3.0% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is €0.88 per share. 
