Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We note that OCR Group Berhad (KLSE:OCR) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
View our latest analysis for OCR Group Berhad
What Is OCR Group Berhad's Debt?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of June 2023 OCR Group Berhad had RM162.8m of debt, an increase on RM109.4m, over one year. However, it does have RM6.62m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about RM156.2m.
How Strong Is OCR Group Berhad's Balance Sheet?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that OCR Group Berhad had liabilities of RM175.5m falling due within a year, and liabilities of RM152.6m due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of RM6.62m and RM202.1m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total RM119.3m more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
When you consider that this deficiency exceeds the company's RM96.7m market capitalization, you might well be inclined to review the balance sheet intently. In the scenario where the company had to clean up its balance sheet quickly, it seems likely shareholders would suffer extensive dilution.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
Weak interest cover of 0.86 times and a disturbingly high net debt to EBITDA ratio of 29.3 hit our confidence in OCR Group Berhad like a one-two punch to the gut. This means we'd consider it to have a heavy debt load. However, it should be some comfort for shareholders to recall that OCR Group Berhad actually grew its EBIT by a hefty 467%, over the last 12 months. If it can keep walking that path it will be in a position to shed its debt with relative ease. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is OCR Group Berhad's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Over the last two years, OCR Group Berhad saw substantial negative free cash flow, in total. While that may be a result of expenditure for growth, it does make the debt far more risky.
Our View
To be frank both OCR Group Berhad's interest cover and its track record of converting EBIT to free cash flow make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. But on the bright side, its EBIT growth rate is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. Overall, it seems to us that OCR Group Berhad's balance sheet is really quite a risk to the business. For this reason we're pretty cautious about the stock, and we think shareholders should keep a close eye on its liquidity. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. We've identified 5 warning signs with OCR Group Berhad (at least 3 which are significant) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About KLSE:OCR
OCR Group Berhad
An investment holding company, engages in the property development, construction, project management consultation, and related businesses in Malaysia.
Moderate and fair value.