Hong Leong Financial Group Berhad Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Hong Leong Financial Group Berhad (KLSE:HLFG) came out with its full-year results last week, and we wanted to see how the business is performing and what industry forecasters think of the company following this report. Revenues of RM7.2b were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at RM2.87, missing estimates by 5.5%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Hong Leong Financial Group Berhad from four analysts is for revenues of RM7.66b in 2026. If met, it would imply a reasonable 6.5% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to accumulate 2.4% to RM2.94. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of RM7.42b and earnings per share (EPS) of RM3.12 in 2026. So it's pretty clear consensus is mixed on Hong Leong Financial Group Berhad after the latest results; whilethe analysts lifted revenue numbers, they also administered a small dip in per-share earnings expectations.

Check out our latest analysis for Hong Leong Financial Group Berhad

There's been no major changes to the price target of RM21.35, suggesting that the impact of higher forecast revenue and lower earnings won't result in a meaningful change to the business' valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Hong Leong Financial Group Berhad, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at RM21.70 and the most bearish at RM20.55 per share. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Hong Leong Financial Group Berhad is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Hong Leong Financial Group Berhad'shistorical trends, as the 6.5% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 is roughly in line with the 7.3% annual growth over the past five years. Juxtapose this against our data, which suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 5.9% per year. So although Hong Leong Financial Group Berhad is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's only growing at about the rate of the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Hong Leong Financial Group Berhad. They also upgraded their revenue forecasts, although the latest estimates suggest that Hong Leong Financial Group Berhad will grow in line with the overall industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Hong Leong Financial Group Berhad. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Hong Leong Financial Group Berhad analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see our analysis of Hong Leong Financial Group Berhad's Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.