Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V.

BMV:VOLAR A Stock Report

Market Cap: Mex$19.7b

Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación. de Valuation

Is VOLAR A undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of VOLAR A when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: VOLAR A (MX$17.15) is trading below our estimate of fair value (MX$67.24)

Significantly Below Fair Value: VOLAR A is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for VOLAR A?

Key metric: As VOLAR A is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for VOLAR A. This is calculated by dividing VOLAR A's market cap by their current earnings.
What is VOLAR A's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio5.1x
EarningsUS$192.82m
Market CapUS$975.89m

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does VOLAR A's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for VOLAR A vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average14.5x
TRAXION A Grupo Traxión. de
16x24.0%Mex$10.6b
OMA B Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte. de
14.2x10.5%Mex$71.0b
PINFRA * Promotora y Operadora de Infraestructura S. A. B. de C. V
9.9x4.2%Mex$78.2b
SNCY Sun Country Airlines Holdings
17.9x53.2%US$834.3m
VOLAR A Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación. de
5.1x-39.8%Mex$19.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: VOLAR A is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.1x) compared to the peer average (14.5x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does VOLAR A's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Airlines Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
VOLAR A 5.1xIndustry Avg. 9.7xNo. of Companies11PE0612182430+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: VOLAR A is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.1x) compared to the Global Airlines industry average (9.6x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is VOLAR A's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

VOLAR A PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio5.1x
Fair PE Ratio4.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: VOLAR A is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4.2x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst VOLAR A forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentMex$17.15
Mex$22.63
+31.9%
11.7%Mex$25.60Mex$18.20n/a7
Dec ’25Mex$15.55
Mex$22.63
+45.5%
11.7%Mex$25.60Mex$18.20n/a7
Nov ’25Mex$14.85
Mex$22.63
+52.4%
11.7%Mex$25.60Mex$18.20n/a7
Oct ’25Mex$12.43
Mex$21.40
+72.2%
11.4%Mex$25.60Mex$18.20n/a6
Sep ’25Mex$11.20
Mex$21.40
+91.1%
11.4%Mex$25.60Mex$18.20n/a6
Aug ’25Mex$11.02
Mex$20.64
+87.3%
13.6%Mex$25.60Mex$17.00n/a7
Jul ’25Mex$11.52
Mex$21.21
+84.2%
15.9%Mex$26.00Mex$17.00n/a7
Jun ’25Mex$13.56
Mex$21.10
+55.6%
15.3%Mex$26.00Mex$17.00n/a8
May ’25Mex$14.09
Mex$20.83
+47.8%
14.0%Mex$26.00Mex$17.00n/a8
Apr ’25Mex$12.50
Mex$20.83
+66.6%
14.0%Mex$26.00Mex$17.00n/a8
Mar ’25Mex$12.37
Mex$20.98
+69.6%
13.4%Mex$26.00Mex$17.00n/a8
Feb ’25Mex$13.77
Mex$22.23
+61.4%
13.4%Mex$27.00Mex$18.20n/a8
Jan ’25Mex$16.00
Mex$25.39
+58.7%
27.3%Mex$36.00Mex$18.20n/a7
Dec ’24Mex$13.68
Mex$25.39
+85.6%
27.3%Mex$36.00Mex$18.20Mex$15.557
Nov ’24Mex$10.27
Mex$27.15
+164.4%
23.5%Mex$36.00Mex$18.20Mex$14.858
Oct ’24Mex$11.85
Mex$29.63
+150.0%
16.5%Mex$36.00Mex$22.00Mex$12.438
Sep ’24Mex$16.65
Mex$33.30
+100.0%
14.4%Mex$42.00Mex$26.30Mex$11.208
Aug ’24Mex$19.73
Mex$33.30
+68.8%
14.4%Mex$42.00Mex$26.30Mex$11.028
Jul ’24Mex$23.97
Mex$32.76
+36.7%
14.5%Mex$41.90Mex$26.30Mex$11.528
Jun ’24Mex$24.86
Mex$32.83
+32.0%
14.6%Mex$41.90Mex$26.30Mex$13.568
May ’24Mex$21.18
Mex$35.14
+65.9%
26.7%Mex$56.00Mex$26.30Mex$14.097
Apr ’24Mex$22.20
Mex$32.53
+46.5%
35.9%Mex$56.00Mex$15.00Mex$12.507
Mar ’24Mex$21.75
Mex$32.09
+47.5%
36.8%Mex$56.00Mex$15.00Mex$12.377
Feb ’24Mex$21.03
Mex$34.93
+66.1%
25.9%Mex$56.00Mex$27.00Mex$13.777
Jan ’24Mex$16.31
Mex$34.93
+114.2%
25.9%Mex$56.00Mex$27.00Mex$16.007
Dec ’23Mex$19.66
Mex$37.36
+90.0%
24.5%Mex$56.00Mex$27.00Mex$13.687

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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