United Parcel Service Valuation
Is UPS * undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
2/6Valuation Score 2/6
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of UPS * when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: UPS * (MX$2744) is trading above our estimate of fair value (MX$1467.14)
Significantly Below Fair Value: UPS * is trading above our estimate of fair value.
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for UPS *?
Key metric: As UPS * is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.
| What is UPS *'s PE Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| PE Ratio | 20.3x |
| Earnings | US$5.67b |
| Market Cap | US$112.11b |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | 1.5x |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | 11x |
| PEG Ratio | 1.6x |
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers
How does UPS *'s PE Ratio compare to its peers?
| Company | Forward PE | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 21.4x | ||
FDX FedEx | 18.1x | 10.8% | US$72.1b |
DSV DSV | 32.6x | 10.0% | DKK 352.8b |
DHL Deutsche Post | 12.6x | 9.0% | €40.7b |
GAP B Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico. de | 22.1x | 18.0% | Mex$190.2b |
UPS * United Parcel Service | 20.3x | 13.0% | Mex$112.1b |
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: UPS * is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.3x) compared to the peer average (21.4x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry
How does UPS *'s PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Logistics Industry?
| 2 Companies | Price / Earnings | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Companies | Estimated Growth | Market Cap | |
|---|---|---|---|
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: UPS * is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.3x) compared to the Global Logistics industry average (17.8x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is UPS *'s PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PE Ratio | 20.3x |
| Fair PE Ratio | 23.4x |
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: UPS * is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23.4x).
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
| Date | Share Price | Average 1Y Price Target | Dispersion | High | Low | 1Y Actual price | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | Mex$2,744.00 | Mex$3,071.70 +11.9% | 11.7% | Mex$3,807.56 | Mex$2,058.14 | n/a | 29 |
| Nov ’25 | Mex$2,700.00 | Mex$2,988.01 +10.7% | 11.8% | Mex$3,702.96 | Mex$2,001.60 | n/a | 29 |
| Oct ’25 | Mex$2,685.00 | Mex$2,862.37 +6.6% | 13.0% | Mex$3,759.95 | Mex$1,978.92 | n/a | 28 |
| Sep ’25 | Mex$2,496.99 | Mex$2,872.13 +15.0% | 13.4% | Mex$3,741.23 | Mex$1,969.07 | n/a | 29 |
| Aug ’25 | Mex$2,415.00 | Mex$2,773.11 +14.8% | 14.2% | Mex$3,566.70 | Mex$1,877.21 | n/a | 29 |
| Jul ’25 | Mex$2,450.00 | Mex$2,907.90 +18.7% | 12.5% | Mex$3,683.28 | Mex$1,796.72 | n/a | 29 |
| Jun ’25 | Mex$2,300.00 | Mex$2,697.66 +17.3% | 12.5% | Mex$3,403.57 | Mex$1,660.28 | n/a | 28 |
| May ’25 | Mex$2,540.00 | Mex$2,804.49 +10.4% | 12.1% | Mex$3,528.28 | Mex$1,721.11 | n/a | 30 |
| Apr ’25 | Mex$2,430.00 | Mex$2,652.48 +9.2% | 12.9% | Mex$3,491.08 | Mex$1,662.42 | n/a | 29 |
| Mar ’25 | Mex$2,524.00 | Mex$2,741.55 +8.6% | 13.1% | Mex$3,590.62 | Mex$1,624.33 | n/a | 29 |
| Feb ’25 | Mex$2,417.00 | Mex$2,757.19 +14.1% | 14.0% | Mex$3,673.60 | Mex$1,623.22 | n/a | 30 |
| Jan ’25 | Mex$2,680.00 | Mex$2,821.81 +5.3% | 14.3% | Mex$3,737.49 | Mex$1,698.86 | n/a | 30 |
| Dec ’24 | Mex$2,558.92 | Mex$2,866.56 +12.0% | 14.4% | Mex$3,808.99 | Mex$1,731.36 | n/a | 30 |
| Nov ’24 | Mex$2,532.00 | Mex$3,006.89 +18.8% | 14.4% | Mex$3,966.56 | Mex$1,802.98 | Mex$2,700.00 | 30 |
| Oct ’24 | Mex$2,707.00 | Mex$3,214.64 +18.8% | 12.4% | Mex$4,009.13 | Mex$1,743.10 | Mex$2,685.00 | 29 |
| Sep ’24 | Mex$2,881.00 | Mex$3,230.20 +12.1% | 11.7% | Mex$3,911.68 | Mex$1,700.73 | Mex$2,496.99 | 30 |
| Aug ’24 | Mex$3,121.28 | Mex$3,187.73 +2.1% | 12.3% | Mex$3,851.21 | Mex$1,674.44 | Mex$2,415.00 | 29 |
| Jul ’24 | Mex$2,988.00 | Mex$3,268.14 +9.4% | 12.0% | Mex$3,958.32 | Mex$1,721.01 | Mex$2,450.00 | 30 |
| Jun ’24 | Mex$2,962.00 | Mex$3,380.25 +14.1% | 11.7% | Mex$4,068.33 | Mex$1,768.84 | Mex$2,300.00 | 29 |
| May ’24 | Mex$3,140.00 | Mex$3,422.86 +9.0% | 11.4% | Mex$4,060.26 | Mex$1,804.56 | Mex$2,540.00 | 28 |
| Apr ’24 | Mex$3,452.00 | Mex$3,521.51 +2.0% | 11.8% | Mex$4,127.49 | Mex$1,834.44 | Mex$2,430.00 | 30 |
| Mar ’24 | Mex$3,337.66 | Mex$3,569.65 +7.0% | 11.8% | Mex$4,226.97 | Mex$1,862.10 | Mex$2,524.00 | 30 |
| Feb ’24 | Mex$3,447.19 | Mex$3,569.65 +3.6% | 11.8% | Mex$4,226.97 | Mex$1,862.10 | Mex$2,417.00 | 30 |
| Jan ’24 | Mex$3,391.00 | Mex$3,773.23 +11.3% | 13.1% | Mex$4,971.13 | Mex$1,980.53 | Mex$2,680.00 | 31 |
| Dec ’23 | Mex$3,545.00 | Mex$3,656.41 +3.1% | 13.1% | Mex$4,841.82 | Mex$1,929.01 | Mex$2,558.92 | 31 |
| Nov ’23 | Mex$3,335.00 | Mex$3,765.44 +12.9% | 12.4% | Mex$4,979.41 | Mex$1,983.83 | Mex$2,532.00 | 31 |
Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.