Old Dominion Freight Line Valuation
Is ODFL * undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
0/6Valuation Score 0/6
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of ODFL * when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: ODFL * (MX$4425) is trading above our estimate of fair value (MX$2387.31)
Significantly Below Fair Value: ODFL * is trading above our estimate of fair value.
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ODFL *?
Key metric: As ODFL * is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.
| What is ODFL *'s PE Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| PE Ratio | 37.7x |
| Earnings | US$1.25b |
| Market Cap | US$47.02b |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | 7.9x |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | 23.8x |
| PEG Ratio | 4.3x |
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers
How does ODFL *'s PE Ratio compare to its peers?
| Company | Forward PE | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 16.5x | ||
TRAXION A Grupo Traxión. de | 15.6x | 24.0% | Mex$10.3b |
GMXT * GMéxico Transportes. de | 15.4x | 21.6% | Mex$133.8b |
GAP B Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico. de | 22.1x | 18.0% | Mex$194.0b |
ASUR B Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste S. A. B. de C. V | 12.7x | 7.9% | Mex$161.6b |
ODFL * Old Dominion Freight Line | 37.7x | 8.8% | Mex$47.0b |
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ODFL * is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (37.7x) compared to the peer average (16.5x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry
How does ODFL *'s PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Transportation Industry?
| 8 Companies | Price / Earnings | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Companies | Estimated Growth | Market Cap | |
|---|---|---|---|
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ODFL * is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (37.7x) compared to the Global Transportation industry average (14.4x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is ODFL *'s PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PE Ratio | 37.7x |
| Fair PE Ratio | n/a |
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate ODFL *'s Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
| Date | Share Price | Average 1Y Price Target | Dispersion | High | Low | 1Y Actual price | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | Mex$4,425.00 | Mex$4,051.39 -8.4% | 12.7% | Mex$4,935.85 | Mex$3,174.51 | n/a | 21 |
| Nov ’25 | Mex$4,120.00 | Mex$3,778.73 -8.3% | 9.1% | Mex$4,327.87 | Mex$3,077.15 | n/a | 21 |
| Oct ’25 | Mex$3,830.00 | Mex$3,833.63 +0.09% | 10.4% | Mex$4,471.81 | Mex$3,040.05 | n/a | 21 |
| Sep ’25 | Mex$3,776.00 | Mex$3,631.19 -3.8% | 10.0% | Mex$4,206.96 | Mex$2,860.00 | n/a | 21 |
| Aug ’25 | Mex$3,835.00 | Mex$3,631.19 -5.3% | 10.0% | Mex$4,206.96 | Mex$2,860.00 | n/a | 21 |
| Jul ’25 | Mex$3,235.86 | Mex$3,554.32 +9.8% | 10.0% | Mex$4,262.90 | Mex$2,757.28 | n/a | 21 |
| Jun ’25 | Mex$2,926.50 | Mex$3,425.16 +17.0% | 10.5% | Mex$4,067.69 | Mex$2,523.63 | n/a | 19 |
| May ’25 | n/a | Mex$3,549.77 0% | 10.7% | Mex$4,200.92 | Mex$2,606.28 | n/a | 20 |
| Apr ’25 | Mex$3,703.35 | Mex$3,391.46 -8.4% | 11.5% | Mex$4,266.36 | Mex$2,435.55 | n/a | 18 |
| Mar ’25 | Mex$3,696.00 | Mex$3,466.19 -6.2% | 12.0% | Mex$4,402.79 | Mex$2,513.44 | n/a | 18 |
| Feb ’25 | Mex$3,361.08 | Mex$3,443.83 +2.5% | 12.1% | Mex$4,186.19 | Mex$2,409.20 | n/a | 19 |
| Jan ’25 | Mex$3,486.45 | Mex$3,398.86 -2.5% | 10.1% | Mex$3,839.15 | Mex$2,422.01 | n/a | 19 |
| Dec ’24 | Mex$3,530.70 | Mex$3,471.42 -1.7% | 10.6% | Mex$4,209.86 | Mex$2,422.82 | n/a | 20 |
| Nov ’24 | Mex$3,482.32 | Mex$3,676.52 +5.6% | 11.6% | Mex$4,436.09 | Mex$2,489.64 | Mex$4,120.00 | 20 |
| Oct ’24 | n/a | Mex$3,584.33 0% | 13.6% | Mex$4,169.36 | Mex$2,413.84 | Mex$3,830.00 | 20 |
| Sep ’24 | Mex$3,601.50 | Mex$3,462.67 -3.9% | 13.7% | Mex$4,060.68 | Mex$2,248.33 | Mex$3,776.00 | 21 |
| Aug ’24 | Mex$3,406.70 | Mex$3,409.19 +0.07% | 13.8% | Mex$4,004.56 | Mex$2,217.26 | Mex$3,835.00 | 21 |
| Jul ’24 | n/a | Mex$2,778.77 0% | 11.5% | Mex$3,346.86 | Mex$1,917.38 | Mex$3,235.86 | 19 |
| Jun ’24 | Mex$2,794.50 | Mex$2,831.54 +1.3% | 10.5% | Mex$3,405.02 | Mex$1,972.26 | Mex$2,926.50 | 19 |
| May ’24 | Mex$3,160.53 | Mex$2,940.93 -6.9% | 10.2% | Mex$3,473.78 | Mex$2,012.08 | n/a | 18 |
| Apr ’24 | Mex$2,971.68 | Mex$3,139.61 +5.7% | 12.9% | Mex$3,649.54 | Mex$1,955.43 | Mex$3,703.35 | 17 |
| Mar ’24 | Mex$3,085.13 | Mex$3,237.27 +4.9% | 13.7% | Mex$3,900.63 | Mex$1,991.62 | Mex$3,696.00 | 18 |
| Feb ’24 | Mex$2,941.93 | Mex$2,979.36 +1.3% | 17.2% | Mex$3,724.20 | Mex$1,871.41 | Mex$3,361.08 | 17 |
| Jan ’24 | n/a | Mex$2,765.86 0% | 9.8% | Mex$3,211.05 | Mex$1,985.91 | Mex$3,486.45 | 17 |
| Dec ’23 | Mex$2,797.50 | Mex$2,746.70 -1.8% | 11.0% | Mex$3,283.16 | Mex$1,940.93 | Mex$3,530.70 | 18 |
| Nov ’23 | n/a | Mex$2,781.94 0% | 10.5% | Mex$3,365.39 | Mex$1,989.54 | Mex$3,482.32 | 18 |
Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.