Air Transport Services Group Valuation

Is ATSG * undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ATSG * when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ATSG * (MX$441.88) is trading below our estimate of fair value (MX$612.72)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ATSG * is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ATSG *?

Key metric: As ATSG * is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for ATSG *. This is calculated by dividing ATSG *'s market cap by their current revenue.
What is ATSG *'s PS Ratio?
PS Ratio	0.7x
Sales	US$1.96b
Market Cap	US$1.44b

ATSG * key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.5x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	6.7x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does ATSG *'s PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for ATSG * vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PS	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	2.4x
AEROMEX * Grupo Aeroméxico. de	0.3x	n/a	Mex$22.8b
VOLAR A Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación. de	0.3x	5.3%	Mex$18.2b
PINFRA * Promotora y Operadora de Infraestructura S. A. B. de C. V	4.5x	4.1%	Mex$78.2b
OMA B Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte. de	4.4x	6.4%	Mex$63.1b
ATSG * Air Transport Services Group	0.7x	4.9%	Mex$1.4b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: ATSG * is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.7x) compared to the peer average (3.1x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does ATSG *'s PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Logistics Industry?

30 Companies	Price / Sales	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

30 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: ATSG * is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.7x) compared to the Global Logistics industry average (0.6x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ATSG *'s PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ATSG * PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio	0.7x
Fair PS Ratio	n/a

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate ATSG *'s Price-To-Sales Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Insufficient data to show price forecast.