American Airlines Group Valuation
Is AAL * undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
3/6Valuation Score 3/6
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of AAL * when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: AAL * (MX$226.8) is trading below our estimate of fair value (MX$516.75)
Significantly Below Fair Value: AAL * is trading below fair value by more than 20%.
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AAL *?
Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.
What is AAL *'s n/a Ratio? | |
---|---|
n/a | 0x |
n/a | n/a |
Market Cap | US$9.08b |
Key Statistics | |
---|---|
Enterprise Value/Revenue | 0.8x |
Enterprise Value/EBITDA | 6.8x |
PEG Ratio | 0.6x |
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers
How does AAL *'s PE Ratio compare to its peers?
Company | Forward PE | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
---|---|---|---|
Peer Average | 14.7x | ||
VOLAR A Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación. de | 8.2x | 14.6% | Mex$15.4b |
GAP B Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico. de | 16.1x | 11.5% | Mex$159.3b |
ASUR B Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste S. A. B. de C. V | 15.1x | 12.1% | Mex$170.4b |
GMXT * GMéxico Transportes. de | 19.1x | 5.8% | Mex$168.3b |
AAL * American Airlines Group | 17.6x | 31.5% | Mex$9.1b |
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: AAL * is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.6x) compared to the peer average (14.7x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry
How does AAL *'s PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Airlines Industry?
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: AAL * is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.6x) compared to the Global Airlines industry average (9x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is AAL *'s PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
Fair Ratio | |
---|---|
Current PE Ratio | 17.6x |
Fair PE Ratio | 28.2x |
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: AAL * is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28.2x).
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
Date | Share Price | Average 1Y Price Target | Dispersion | High | Low | 1Y Actual price | Analysts |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Current | Mex$230.15 | Mex$293.32 +27.4% | 17.8% | Mex$398.47 | Mex$199.23 | n/a | 18 |
May ’25 | Mex$231.25 | Mex$300.32 +29.9% | 18.0% | Mex$411.04 | Mex$205.52 | n/a | 17 |
Apr ’25 | Mex$252.93 | Mex$292.99 +15.8% | 18.2% | Mex$387.16 | Mex$202.00 | n/a | 18 |
Mar ’25 | Mex$263.00 | Mex$295.51 +12.4% | 19.6% | Mex$395.54 | Mex$206.37 | n/a | 18 |
Feb ’25 | Mex$245.08 | Mex$289.24 +18.0% | 20.6% | Mex$396.12 | Mex$206.67 | n/a | 18 |
Jan ’25 | Mex$232.54 | Mex$247.39 +6.4% | 23.1% | Mex$346.15 | Mex$138.46 | n/a | 17 |
Dec ’24 | Mex$223.52 | Mex$251.23 +12.4% | 22.9% | Mex$352.97 | Mex$141.19 | n/a | 17 |
Nov ’24 | Mex$197.60 | Mex$269.20 +36.2% | 21.8% | Mex$364.65 | Mex$145.86 | n/a | 17 |
Oct ’24 | Mex$223.50 | Mex$300.36 +34.4% | 27.8% | Mex$509.10 | Mex$158.00 | n/a | 16 |
Sep ’24 | Mex$252.93 | Mex$303.44 +20.0% | 24.4% | Mex$487.01 | Mex$184.73 | n/a | 16 |
Aug ’24 | Mex$274.18 | Mex$326.91 +19.2% | 22.1% | Mex$488.38 | Mex$185.25 | n/a | 17 |
Jul ’24 | Mex$307.37 | Mex$311.78 +1.4% | 25.9% | Mex$496.79 | Mex$188.44 | n/a | 17 |
Jun ’24 | Mex$260.00 | Mex$324.84 +24.9% | 25.8% | Mex$512.96 | Mex$168.04 | n/a | 17 |
May ’24 | Mex$245.00 | Mex$317.11 +29.4% | 23.9% | Mex$466.14 | Mex$170.32 | Mex$231.25 | 16 |
Apr ’24 | Mex$265.18 | Mex$325.22 +22.6% | 23.7% | Mex$470.58 | Mex$144.79 | Mex$252.93 | 16 |
Mar ’24 | Mex$287.35 | Mex$321.63 +11.9% | 25.1% | Mex$478.66 | Mex$147.28 | Mex$263.00 | 17 |
Feb ’24 | Mex$309.43 | Mex$323.32 +4.5% | 25.9% | Mex$487.74 | Mex$150.07 | Mex$245.08 | 17 |
Jan ’24 | Mex$247.30 | Mex$313.40 +26.7% | 30.2% | Mex$513.99 | Mex$138.38 | Mex$232.54 | 17 |
Dec ’23 | Mex$268.00 | Mex$323.72 +20.8% | 32.8% | Mex$509.15 | Mex$137.08 | Mex$223.52 | 16 |
Nov ’23 | Mex$279.33 | Mex$326.97 +17.1% | 33.5% | Mex$518.18 | Mex$139.51 | Mex$197.60 | 16 |
Oct ’23 | Mex$247.98 | Mex$346.73 +39.8% | 33.3% | Mex$564.85 | Mex$161.39 | Mex$223.50 | 16 |
Sep ’23 | Mex$262.48 | Mex$348.15 +32.6% | 32.8% | Mex$560.72 | Mex$160.21 | Mex$252.93 | 17 |
Aug ’23 | Mex$290.50 | Mex$360.19 +24.0% | 33.2% | Mex$573.13 | Mex$163.75 | Mex$274.18 | 16 |
Jul ’23 | Mex$264.00 | Mex$392.96 +48.8% | 24.9% | Mex$566.88 | Mex$182.21 | Mex$307.37 | 16 |
Jun ’23 | Mex$347.10 | Mex$386.80 +11.4% | 22.4% | Mex$514.27 | Mex$178.02 | Mex$260.00 | 19 |
May ’23 | Mex$385.00 | Mex$399.14 +3.7% | 23.0% | Mex$530.15 | Mex$183.51 | Mex$245.00 | 18 |
Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.