Carvana Valuation
Is CVNA * undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
1/6Valuation Score 1/6
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of CVNA * when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: CVNA * (MX$1840) is trading below our estimate of fair value (MX$2096.61)
Significantly Below Fair Value: CVNA * is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CVNA *?
Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.
What is CVNA *'s n/a Ratio? | |
---|---|
n/a | 0x |
n/a | n/a |
Market Cap | US$22.32b |
Key Statistics | |
---|---|
Enterprise Value/Revenue | 1.6x |
Enterprise Value/EBITDA | 33.6x |
PEG Ratio | -8.5x |
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers
How does CVNA *'s PE Ratio compare to its peers?
Company | Forward PE | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
---|---|---|---|
Peer Average | 15.2x | ||
LIVEPOL C-1 El Puerto de Liverpool. de | 8.7x | 5.6% | Mex$200.0b |
GIGANTE * Grupo Gigante S. A. B. de C. V | 16.5x | n/a | Mex$31.8b |
GSANBOR B-1 Grupo Sanborns. de | 12.8x | n/a | Mex$58.4b |
KMX CarMax | 22.9x | 15.0% | US$11.0b |
CVNA * Carvana | 19.2x | -2.2% | Mex$22.3b |
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: CVNA * is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.2x) compared to the peer average (16x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry
How does CVNA *'s PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Specialty Retail Industry?
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: CVNA * is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.2x) compared to the Global Specialty Retail industry average (15.3x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is CVNA *'s PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
Fair Ratio | |
---|---|
Current PE Ratio | 19.2x |
Fair PE Ratio | n/a |
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate CVNA *'s Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
Date | Share Price | Average 1Y Price Target | Dispersion | High | Low | 1Y Actual price | Analysts |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Current | Mex$1,840.00 | Mex$1,725.09 -6.2% | 24.0% | Mex$2,234.25 | Mex$827.50 | n/a | 17 |
May ’25 | Mex$1,374.50 | Mex$1,113.30 -19.0% | 22.3% | Mex$1,531.80 | Mex$442.52 | n/a | 18 |
Apr ’25 | Mex$1,447.00 | Mex$1,045.38 -27.8% | 23.6% | Mex$1,496.84 | Mex$432.42 | n/a | 18 |
Mar ’25 | Mex$1,392.00 | Mex$947.70 -31.9% | 23.7% | Mex$1,365.33 | Mex$443.73 | n/a | 17 |
Feb ’25 | Mex$698.00 | Mex$664.98 -4.7% | 31.7% | Mex$1,067.80 | Mex$258.34 | n/a | 18 |
Jan ’25 | Mex$906.60 | Mex$629.60 -30.6% | 30.5% | Mex$1,063.46 | Mex$257.29 | n/a | 17 |
Dec ’24 | Mex$612.00 | Mex$598.82 -2.2% | 28.7% | Mex$1,033.49 | Mex$258.37 | n/a | 17 |
Nov ’24 | Mex$461.33 | Mex$728.21 +57.8% | 32.9% | Mex$1,068.74 | Mex$89.06 | n/a | 17 |
Oct ’24 | Mex$714.50 | Mex$748.30 +4.7% | 34.0% | Mex$1,096.34 | Mex$87.01 | n/a | 17 |
Sep ’24 | Mex$870.00 | Mex$721.11 -17.1% | 34.4% | Mex$1,074.14 | Mex$85.25 | n/a | 17 |
Aug ’24 | Mex$831.50 | Mex$679.03 -18.3% | 38.3% | Mex$1,050.93 | Mex$83.41 | n/a | 17 |
Jul ’24 | Mex$445.00 | Mex$269.39 -39.5% | 55.1% | Mex$618.19 | Mex$17.17 | n/a | 16 |
Jun ’24 | Mex$283.51 | Mex$201.83 -28.8% | 61.2% | Mex$627.50 | Mex$17.43 | n/a | 19 |
May ’24 | Mex$129.00 | Mex$171.76 +33.1% | 44.0% | Mex$360.49 | Mex$18.02 | Mex$1,374.50 | 17 |
Apr ’24 | Mex$173.40 | Mex$178.05 +2.7% | 45.1% | Mex$372.39 | Mex$18.62 | Mex$1,447.00 | 16 |
Mar ’24 | Mex$170.00 | Mex$169.77 -0.1% | 47.1% | Mex$365.97 | Mex$18.30 | Mex$1,392.00 | 18 |
Feb ’24 | Mex$205.00 | Mex$201.00 -1.9% | 90.9% | Mex$845.78 | Mex$18.80 | Mex$698.00 | 18 |
Jan ’24 | Mex$87.50 | Mex$280.46 +220.5% | 78.5% | Mex$876.75 | Mex$19.48 | Mex$906.60 | 19 |
Dec ’23 | Mex$160.00 | Mex$365.50 +128.4% | 64.7% | Mex$964.51 | Mex$96.45 | Mex$612.00 | 19 |
Nov ’23 | n/a | Mex$871.90 0% | 53.4% | Mex$1,971.99 | Mex$147.90 | Mex$461.33 | 21 |
Oct ’23 | Mex$410.00 | Mex$1,170.49 +185.5% | 48.0% | Mex$2,896.60 | Mex$305.98 | Mex$714.50 | 21 |
Sep ’23 | n/a | Mex$1,149.04 0% | 49.0% | Mex$2,826.47 | Mex$298.57 | Mex$870.00 | 22 |
Aug ’23 | Mex$495.57 | Mex$1,299.14 +162.2% | 70.7% | Mex$4,517.13 | Mex$307.99 | Mex$831.50 | 22 |
Jul ’23 | Mex$470.00 | Mex$1,526.33 +224.8% | 66.0% | Mex$4,423.63 | Mex$301.61 | Mex$445.00 | 22 |
Jun ’23 | Mex$700.00 | Mex$2,009.31 +187.0% | 90.4% | Mex$9,250.35 | Mex$688.86 | Mex$283.51 | 22 |
May ’23 | Mex$1,375.00 | Mex$3,322.91 +141.7% | 57.0% | Mex$9,592.09 | Mex$1,530.65 | Mex$129.00 | 22 |
Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.