Novavax Valuation
Is NVAX * undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
4/6Valuation Score 4/6
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of NVAX * when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: NVAX * (MX$177.99) is trading below our estimate of fair value (MX$576.91)
Significantly Below Fair Value: NVAX * is trading below fair value by more than 20%.
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for NVAX *?
Key metric: As NVAX * is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.
| What is NVAX *'s PS Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| PS Ratio | 1.6x |
| Sales | US$885.19m |
| Market Cap | US$1.40b |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | 0.9x |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | -3.1x |
| PEG Ratio | n/a |
Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers
How does NVAX *'s PS Ratio compare to its peers?
| Company | Forward PS | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 5.5x | ||
LAB B Genomma Lab Internacional. de | 1.4x | 9.9% | Mex$24.6b |
RCUS Arcus Biosciences | 5.5x | 18.5% | US$1.4b |
PHM Pharma Mar | 8.1x | 26.0% | €1.4b |
688105 Nanjing Vazyme Biotech | 6.9x | 23.7% | CN¥9.7b |
NVAX * Novavax | 1.6x | -10.2% | Mex$1.4b |
Price-To-Sales vs Peers: NVAX * is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.6x) compared to the peer average (5.5x).
Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry
How does NVAX *'s PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Biotechs Industry?
Price-To-Sales vs Industry: NVAX * is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.6x) compared to the Global Biotechs industry average (9x).
Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is NVAX *'s PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PS Ratio | 1.6x |
| Fair PS Ratio | n/a |
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate NVAX *'s Price-To-Sales Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
| Date | Share Price | Average 1Y Price Target | Dispersion | High | Low | 1Y Actual price | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | Mex$177.99 | Mex$326.62 +83.5% | 39.5% | Mex$510.35 | Mex$183.73 | n/a | 6 |
| Nov ’25 | Mex$190.00 | Mex$355.61 +87.2% | 34.5% | Mex$518.46 | Mex$179.47 | n/a | 6 |
| Oct ’25 | Mex$249.00 | Mex$346.67 +39.2% | 41.5% | Mex$591.57 | Mex$171.75 | n/a | 6 |
| Sep ’25 | Mex$244.47 | Mex$346.67 +41.8% | 41.5% | Mex$591.57 | Mex$171.75 | n/a | 6 |
| Aug ’25 | Mex$240.00 | Mex$359.40 +49.7% | 45.0% | Mex$581.29 | Mex$150.01 | n/a | 6 |
| Jul ’25 | Mex$239.00 | Mex$420.96 +76.1% | 42.6% | Mex$701.61 | Mex$184.63 | n/a | 5 |
| Jun ’25 | Mex$257.46 | Mex$361.43 +40.4% | 48.9% | Mex$635.85 | Mex$167.33 | n/a | 5 |
| May ’25 | Mex$77.00 | Mex$262.09 +240.4% | 81.2% | Mex$646.71 | Mex$68.07 | n/a | 5 |
| Apr ’25 | Mex$80.00 | Mex$262.09 +227.6% | 81.2% | Mex$646.71 | Mex$68.07 | n/a | 5 |
| Mar ’25 | Mex$91.30 | Mex$262.09 +187.1% | 81.2% | Mex$646.71 | Mex$68.07 | n/a | 5 |
| Feb ’25 | Mex$71.50 | Mex$327.38 +357.9% | 73.3% | Mex$641.25 | Mex$67.50 | n/a | 5 |
| Jan ’25 | Mex$81.41 | Mex$337.06 +314.0% | 71.5% | Mex$653.49 | Mex$85.99 | n/a | 5 |
| Dec ’24 | Mex$94.15 | Mex$337.06 +258.0% | 71.5% | Mex$653.49 | Mex$85.99 | n/a | 5 |
| Nov ’24 | Mex$125.00 | Mex$350.41 +180.3% | 65.0% | Mex$646.39 | Mex$85.05 | Mex$190.00 | 5 |
| Oct ’24 | Mex$127.70 | Mex$350.41 +174.4% | 65.0% | Mex$646.39 | Mex$85.05 | Mex$249.00 | 5 |
| Sep ’24 | Mex$138.00 | Mex$350.41 +153.9% | 65.0% | Mex$646.39 | Mex$85.05 | Mex$244.47 | 5 |
| Aug ’24 | Mex$147.00 | Mex$367.79 +150.2% | 60.7% | Mex$685.43 | Mex$150.46 | Mex$240.00 | 5 |
| Jul ’24 | Mex$130.00 | Mex$401.41 +208.8% | 54.0% | Mex$720.78 | Mex$158.22 | Mex$239.00 | 6 |
| Jun ’24 | Mex$140.00 | Mex$401.41 +186.7% | 54.0% | Mex$720.78 | Mex$158.22 | Mex$257.46 | 6 |
| May ’24 | Mex$138.00 | Mex$708.21 +413.2% | 95.6% | Mex$1,980.58 | Mex$180.05 | Mex$77.00 | 6 |
| Apr ’24 | Mex$122.00 | Mex$847.82 +594.9% | 75.7% | Mex$1,991.32 | Mex$181.03 | Mex$80.00 | 6 |
| Mar ’24 | Mex$125.00 | Mex$847.82 +578.3% | 75.7% | Mex$1,991.32 | Mex$181.03 | Mex$91.30 | 6 |
| Feb ’24 | Mex$205.97 | Mex$1,058.93 +414.1% | 62.3% | Mex$2,105.10 | Mex$248.78 | Mex$71.50 | 6 |
| Jan ’24 | Mex$200.00 | Mex$1,198.49 +499.2% | 55.2% | Mex$2,143.64 | Mex$253.34 | Mex$81.41 | 6 |
| Dec ’23 | Mex$325.00 | Mex$1,512.17 +365.3% | 80.5% | Mex$4,004.52 | Mex$309.53 | Mex$94.15 | 6 |
| Nov ’23 | Mex$450.00 | Mex$1,631.39 +262.5% | 77.9% | Mex$4,152.03 | Mex$320.93 | Mex$125.00 | 6 |
Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.
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