MP Materials Valuation
Is MP * undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
1/6Valuation Score 1/6
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Book vs Peers
Price-To-Book vs Industry
Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast
Share Price vs Future Cash Flow Value
What is the Fair Price of MP * when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
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Below Fair Value: MP * (MX$1207.6) is trading below our estimate of fair value (MX$1507.25)
Significantly Below Fair Value: MP * is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MP *?
Key metric: As MP * barely has revenue we use its Price-To-Book Ratio for relative valuation analysis.
| What is MP *'s PB Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| PB Ratio | 6.2x |
| Book | US$1.96b |
| Market Cap | US$12.23b |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | 50.4x |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | -148.9x |
| PEG Ratio | n/a |
Price to Book Ratio vs Peers
How does MP *'s PB Ratio compare to its peers?
| Company | Forward PB | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 4.8x | ||
MFRISCO A-1 Minera Frisco. de | 9.3x | n/a | Mex$57.0b |
GMEXICO B Grupo México. de | 3.8x | 7.86% | Mex$1.5t |
ICH B Industrias CH S. A. B. de C. V | 1.2x | n/a | Mex$68.4b |
PE&OLES * Industrias Peñoles. de | 4.7x | 18.20% | Mex$423.5b |
MP * MP Materials | 6.2x | 51.80% | Mex$12.2b |
Price-To-Book vs Peers: MP * is expensive based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (6.2x) compared to the peer average (4.8x).
Historical Price to Book Ratio
Historical Price to Book Ratio compares a stock's price to the book value of it's equity over time. Higher ratios indicate that investors are willing to pay more for the stock.
Fetching historical data
Price to Book Ratio vs Industry
How does MP *'s PB Ratio compare vs other companies in the South American Metals and Mining Industry?
| 3 Companies | Price / Book | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Companies | Estimated Growth | Market Cap | |
|---|---|---|---|
Price-To-Book vs Industry: MP * is expensive based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (6.2x) compared to the South American Metals and Mining industry average (1.4x).
Price to Book Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is MP *'s PB Ratio compared to its Fair PB Ratio? This is the expected PB Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PB Ratio | 6.2x |
| Fair PB Ratio | n/a |
Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate MP *'s Price-To-Book Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
| Date | Share Price | Average 1Y Price Target | Dispersion | High | Low | 1Y Actual price | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | Mex$1,207.60 | Mex$1,416.83 +17.33% | 8.38% | Mex$1,684.21 | Mex$1,236.28 | n/a | 13 |
| Jan ’27 | Mex$907.00 | Mex$1,423.69 +56.97% | 7.80% | Mex$1,687.91 | Mex$1,274.91 | n/a | 14 |
| Dec ’26 | Mex$1,068.00 | Mex$1,463.89 +37.07% | 8.15% | Mex$1,739.48 | Mex$1,267.60 | n/a | 14 |
| Nov ’26 | Mex$1,165.00 | Mex$1,490.86 +27.97% | 13.61% | Mex$2,068.89 | Mex$1,256.11 | n/a | 12 |
| Oct ’26 | Mex$1,238.00 | Mex$1,438.48 +16.19% | 8.27% | Mex$1,665.61 | Mex$1,202.94 | n/a | 11 |
| Sep ’26 | Mex$1,330.50 | Mex$1,343.89 +1.01% | 20.11% | Mex$1,586.54 | Mex$597.29 | n/a | 10 |
| Aug ’26 | Mex$1,211.58 | Mex$1,072.90 -11.45% | 27.93% | Mex$1,511.12 | Mex$566.67 | n/a | 10 |
| Jul ’26 | Mex$600.01 | Mex$571.30 -4.79% | 23.96% | Mex$805.19 | Mex$345.08 | n/a | 10 |
| Jun ’26 | Mex$397.01 | Mex$517.93 +30.46% | 17.81% | Mex$620.74 | Mex$349.17 | n/a | 10 |
| May ’26 | n/a | Mex$521.43 0% | 15.48% | Mex$627.28 | Mex$411.65 | n/a | 11 |
| Apr ’26 | n/a | Mex$535.71 0% | 13.52% | Mex$649.76 | Mex$438.59 | n/a | 12 |
| Mar ’26 | Mex$481.00 | Mex$515.10 +7.09% | 12.49% | Mex$612.81 | Mex$441.22 | n/a | 12 |
| Feb ’26 | n/a | Mex$485.45 0% | 13.45% | Mex$618.41 | Mex$371.04 | n/a | 12 |
| Jan ’26 | n/a | Mex$465.17 0% | 14.37% | Mex$604.34 | Mex$362.60 | Mex$907.00 | 12 |
| Dec ’25 | n/a | Mex$457.19 0% | 16.52% | Mex$618.52 | Mex$329.88 | Mex$1,068.00 | 12 |
| Nov ’25 | Mex$361.50 | Mex$417.80 +15.57% | 20.70% | Mex$602.60 | Mex$251.08 | Mex$1,165.00 | 12 |
| Oct ’25 | n/a | Mex$437.21 0% | 37.18% | Mex$882.59 | Mex$245.17 | Mex$1,238.00 | 12 |
| Sep ’25 | n/a | Mex$415.60 0% | 39.57% | Mex$871.56 | Mex$242.10 | Mex$1,330.50 | 12 |
| Aug ’25 | Mex$239.00 | Mex$408.18 +70.79% | 37.04% | Mex$817.88 | Mex$245.36 | Mex$1,211.58 | 12 |
| Jul ’25 | Mex$246.00 | Mex$438.81 +78.38% | 34.89% | Mex$825.89 | Mex$247.77 | Mex$600.01 | 11 |
| Jun ’25 | n/a | Mex$408.18 0% | 33.65% | Mex$759.58 | Mex$244.75 | Mex$397.01 | 11 |
| May ’25 | n/a | Mex$410.99 0% | 33.36% | Mex$763.37 | Mex$254.46 | n/a | 11 |
| Apr ’25 | n/a | Mex$416.64 0% | 30.61% | Mex$756.83 | Mex$260.69 | n/a | 11 |
| Mar ’25 | Mex$256.00 | Mex$461.54 +80.29% | 28.07% | Mex$769.23 | Mex$290.60 | Mex$481.00 | 11 |
| Feb ’25 | n/a | Mex$492.40 0% | 28.53% | Mex$768.89 | Mex$239.21 | n/a | 11 |
| Jan ’25 | n/a | Mex$524.20 0% | 23.80% | Mex$786.30 | Mex$314.52 | n/a | 12 |
Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/01/18 21:43 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/01/16 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2025/09/30 |
| Annual Earnings | 2024/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
| |
| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
| |
| Ownership | 10 years |
| |
| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
MP Materials Corp. is covered by 20 analysts. 15 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Benjamin Kallo | Baird |
| Subhasish Chandra | Benchmark Company |
| Gregory Jones | BMO Capital Markets Equity Research |