MP Materials Valuation
Is MP * undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
2/6Valuation Score 2/6
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of MP * when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: MP * (MX$276) is trading below our estimate of fair value (MX$807.08)
Significantly Below Fair Value: MP * is trading below fair value by more than 20%.
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MP *?
Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.
| What is MP *'s n/a Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| n/a | 0x |
| n/a | n/a |
| Market Cap | US$2.55b |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | 12.3x |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | 222.5x |
| PEG Ratio | 12.2x |
Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers
How does MP *'s PS Ratio compare to its peers?
| Company | Forward PS | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 2.1x | ||
MFRISCO A-1 Minera Frisco. de | 2.3x | n/a | Mex$20.9b |
GMEXICO B Grupo México. de | 3.4x | 6.0% | Mex$819.0b |
ICH B Industrias CH S. A. B. de C. V | 1.6x | n/a | Mex$77.3b |
PE&OLES * Industrias Peñoles. de | 1x | 0.6% | Mex$99.2b |
MP * MP Materials | 12.3x | 33.4% | Mex$2.5b |
Price-To-Sales vs Peers: MP * is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (12.3x) compared to the peer average (2.1x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry
How does MP *'s PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the South American Metals and Mining Industry?
Price-To-Sales vs Industry: MP * is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (12.3x) compared to the South American Metals and Mining industry average (0.6x).
Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is MP *'s PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PS Ratio | 12.3x |
| Fair PS Ratio | n/a |
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate MP *'s Price-To-Sales Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
| Date | Share Price | Average 1Y Price Target | Dispersion | High | Low | 1Y Actual price | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | Mex$276.00 | Mex$411.15 +49.0% | 33.4% | Mex$763.67 | Mex$254.56 | n/a | 11 |
| Apr ’25 | n/a | Mex$416.64 0% | 30.6% | Mex$756.83 | Mex$260.69 | n/a | 11 |
| Mar ’25 | Mex$256.00 | Mex$461.54 +80.3% | 28.1% | Mex$769.23 | Mex$290.60 | n/a | 11 |
| Feb ’25 | n/a | Mex$492.40 0% | 28.5% | Mex$768.89 | Mex$239.21 | n/a | 11 |
| Jan ’25 | n/a | Mex$524.20 0% | 23.8% | Mex$786.30 | Mex$314.52 | n/a | 12 |
| Dec ’24 | n/a | Mex$532.12 0% | 23.2% | Mex$780.83 | Mex$312.33 | n/a | 12 |
| Nov ’24 | n/a | Mex$596.53 0% | 26.6% | Mex$1,017.43 | Mex$436.04 | n/a | 12 |
| Oct ’24 | Mex$330.00 | Mex$576.90 +74.8% | 23.6% | Mex$954.87 | Mex$409.23 | n/a | 12 |
| Sep ’24 | n/a | Mex$576.90 0% | 23.6% | Mex$954.87 | Mex$409.23 | n/a | 12 |
| Aug ’24 | n/a | Mex$587.81 0% | 23.2% | Mex$942.94 | Mex$404.12 | n/a | 11 |
| Jul ’24 | n/a | Mex$605.68 0% | 22.8% | Mex$959.12 | Mex$445.31 | n/a | 11 |
| Jun ’24 | Mex$361.00 | Mex$620.04 +71.8% | 22.7% | Mex$979.34 | Mex$454.69 | n/a | 11 |
| May ’24 | n/a | Mex$707.06 0% | 19.6% | Mex$1,010.55 | Mex$505.28 | n/a | 11 |
| Apr ’24 | Mex$500.00 | Mex$814.24 +62.8% | 14.4% | Mex$1,049.32 | Mex$637.09 | n/a | 11 |
| Mar ’24 | Mex$642.00 | Mex$817.57 +27.3% | 12.8% | Mex$1,030.95 | Mex$625.94 | Mex$256.00 | 11 |
| Feb ’24 | Mex$622.00 | Mex$833.89 +34.1% | 12.9% | Mex$1,058.04 | Mex$680.17 | n/a | 11 |
| Jan ’24 | n/a | Mex$877.38 0% | 13.0% | Mex$1,108.65 | Mex$712.71 | n/a | 11 |
| Dec ’23 | n/a | Mex$861.54 0% | 12.8% | Mex$1,077.13 | Mex$692.44 | n/a | 12 |
| Nov ’23 | Mex$597.00 | Mex$905.98 +51.8% | 14.7% | Mex$1,155.93 | Mex$717.48 | n/a | 12 |
| Oct ’23 | n/a | Mex$1,004.57 0% | 12.8% | Mex$1,222.81 | Mex$815.21 | Mex$330.00 | 12 |
| Sep ’23 | n/a | Mex$997.68 0% | 11.4% | Mex$1,199.22 | Mex$799.48 | n/a | 12 |
| Aug ’23 | n/a | Mex$1,022.00 0% | 12.1% | Mex$1,249.12 | Mex$832.74 | n/a | 11 |
| Jul ’23 | n/a | Mex$1,055.68 0% | 10.3% | Mex$1,229.92 | Mex$922.44 | n/a | 10 |
| Jun ’23 | Mex$775.00 | Mex$995.89 +28.5% | 10.4% | Mex$1,141.53 | Mex$826.63 | Mex$361.00 | 10 |
| May ’23 | Mex$790.00 | Mex$1,024.80 +29.7% | 11.7% | Mex$1,170.56 | Mex$746.73 | n/a | 9 |
Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.