Grupo México, S.A.B. de C.V. Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Grupo México, S.A.B. de C.V. (BMV:GMEXICOB) defied analyst predictions to release its quarterly results, which were ahead of market expectations. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 3.6% to hit US$4.6b. Grupo México. de reported statutory earnings per share (EPS) US$0.17, which was a notable 17% above what the analysts had forecast. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Grupo México. de from 13 analysts is for revenues of US$18.0b in 2026. If met, it would imply a satisfactory 6.6% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to rise 7.5% to US$0.60. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$17.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.57 in 2026. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on Grupo México. de's earnings potential following these results.

See our latest analysis for Grupo México. de

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of Mex$149, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Grupo México. de analyst has a price target of Mex$184 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at Mex$45.31. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how analysts think this business will perform. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Grupo México. de's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Grupo México. de's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 5.2% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 6.6% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.3% annually. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Grupo México. de is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Grupo México. de's earnings potential next year. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at Mex$149, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Grupo México. de going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for Grupo México. de you should be aware of, and 1 of them is potentially serious.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.