CEMEX, S.A.B. de C.V. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Shareholders might have noticed that CEMEX, S.A.B. de C.V. (BMV:CEMEXCPO) filed its full-year result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 6.2% to Mex$11.56 in the past week. It looks like a pretty bad result, all things considered. Although revenues of US$15b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings fell badly short, missing estimates by 22% to hit US$0.051 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for CEMEX. de

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from CEMEX. de's 15 analysts is for revenues of US$15.4b in 2022, which would reflect a credible 5.7% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to plummet 23% to US$0.04 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$15.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.055 in 2022. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a large cut to EPS estimates.

The consensus price target held steady at Mex$18.83, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on CEMEX. de, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at Mex$22.25 and the most bearish at Mex$15.94 per share. With such a wide range in price targets, analysts are almost certainly betting on widely divergent outcomes in the underlying business. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that CEMEX. de's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 5.7% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2022 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 0.5% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.9% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that CEMEX. de is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at Mex$18.83, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for CEMEX. de going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for CEMEX. de that you should be aware of.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.