Are Robust Financials Driving The Recent Rally In ALPEK, S.A.B. de C.V.'s (BMV:ALPEKA) Stock?

By
Simply Wall St
Published
April 13, 2022
BMV:ALPEK A
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ALPEK. de's (BMV:ALPEKA) stock is up by a considerable 27% over the past three months. Since the market usually pay for a company’s long-term fundamentals, we decided to study the company’s key performance indicators to see if they could be influencing the market. Particularly, we will be paying attention to ALPEK. de's ROE today.

Return on Equity or ROE is a test of how effectively a company is growing its value and managing investors’ money. In short, ROE shows the profit each dollar generates with respect to its shareholder investments.

View our latest analysis for ALPEK. de

How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?

The formula for return on equity is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for ALPEK. de is:

21% = Mex$10b ÷ Mex$50b (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2021).

The 'return' refers to a company's earnings over the last year. So, this means that for every MX$1 of its shareholder's investments, the company generates a profit of MX$0.21.

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

ALPEK. de's Earnings Growth And 21% ROE

To start with, ALPEK. de's ROE looks acceptable. Further, the company's ROE is similar to the industry average of 22%. This certainly adds some context to ALPEK. de's exceptional 25% net income growth seen over the past five years. However, there could also be other drivers behind this growth. For instance, the company has a low payout ratio or is being managed efficiently.

We then compared ALPEK. de's net income growth with the industry and we're pleased to see that the company's growth figure is higher when compared with the industry which has a growth rate of 12% in the same period.

past-earnings-growth
BMV:ALPEK A Past Earnings Growth April 13th 2022

Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. If you're wondering about ALPEK. de's's valuation, check out this gauge of its price-to-earnings ratio, as compared to its industry.

Is ALPEK. de Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?

ALPEK. de's three-year median payout ratio is a pretty moderate 43%, meaning the company retains 57% of its income. This suggests that its dividend is well covered, and given the high growth we discussed above, it looks like ALPEK. de is reinvesting its earnings efficiently.

Additionally, ALPEK. de has paid dividends over a period of nine years which means that the company is pretty serious about sharing its profits with shareholders. Our latest analyst data shows that the future payout ratio of the company is expected to rise to 57% over the next three years. Accordingly, the expected increase in the payout ratio explains the expected decline in the company's ROE to 9.8%, over the same period.

Summary

In total, we are pretty happy with ALPEK. de's performance. Particularly, we like that the company is reinvesting heavily into its business, and at a high rate of return. Unsurprisingly, this has led to an impressive earnings growth. That being so, according to the latest industry analyst forecasts, the company's earnings are expected to shrink in the future. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

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