Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.

BMV:CMG * Stock Report

Market Cap: Mex$1.6t

Chipotle Mexican Grill Valuation

Is CMG * undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of CMG * when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
Mex$990.92
Fair Value
18.6% overvalued intrinsic discount
31
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: CMG * (MX$1175) is trading above our estimate of fair value (MX$990.92)

Significantly Below Fair Value: CMG * is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CMG *?

Key metric: As CMG * is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for CMG *. This is calculated by dividing CMG *'s market cap by their current earnings.
What is CMG *'s PE Ratio?
PE Ratio51.9x
EarningsUS$1.48b
Market CapUS$78.98b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does CMG *'s PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for CMG * vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average26.1x
ALSEA * Alsea. de
12.3x26.5%Mex$35.8b
SBUX Starbucks
27.8x10.1%US$105.0b
CPG Compass Group
39.8x14.8%UK£45.8b
3690 Meituan
24.6x18.2%HK$830.8b
CMG * Chipotle Mexican Grill
51.9x14.8%Mex$79.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: CMG * is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (51.9x) compared to the peer average (26.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does CMG *'s PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the South American Hospitality Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No. of Companies4PE01224364860+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: CMG * is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (51.9x) compared to the South American Hospitality industry average (15.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is CMG *'s PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

CMG * PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio51.9x
Fair PE Ratio31x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: CMG * is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (51.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (31x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst CMG * forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentMex$1,175.00
Mex$1,338.73
+13.9%
11.8%Mex$1,523.65Mex$853.24n/a31
Jan ’26Mex$1,265.00
Mex$1,322.29
+4.5%
11.8%Mex$1,510.85Mex$846.08n/a31
Dec ’25Mex$1,251.00
Mex$1,317.91
+5.3%
11.3%Mex$1,467.98Mex$856.32n/a31
Nov ’25Mex$1,191.19
Mex$1,286.70
+8.0%
11.8%Mex$1,441.15Mex$840.67n/a29
Oct ’25Mex$1,130.00
Mex$1,216.47
+7.7%
11.9%Mex$1,432.49Mex$843.80n/a31
Sep ’25Mex$1,096.00
Mex$1,154.65
+5.4%
11.8%Mex$1,361.11Mex$801.75n/a31
Aug ’25Mex$993.00
Mex$1,180.99
+18.9%
11.8%Mex$1,489.76Mex$800.75n/a31
Jul ’25Mex$1,140.00
Mex$1,205.48
+5.7%
11.7%Mex$1,463.64Mex$731.82n/a31
Jun ’25Mex$1,049.70
Mex$1,093.15
+4.1%
10.4%Mex$1,220.91Mex$695.24n/a30
May ’25Mex$1,063.03
Mex$1,089.20
+2.5%
10.5%Mex$1,225.28Mex$697.73n/a31
Apr ’25Mex$968.22
Mex$931.42
-3.8%
10.7%Mex$1,097.20Mex$648.34n/a30
Mar ’25n/a
Mex$933.19
0%
9.2%Mex$1,060.09Mex$666.83n/a30
Feb ’25Mex$836.06
Mex$833.59
-0.3%
11.2%Mex$1,029.52Mex$617.71n/a30
Jan ’25n/a
Mex$762.12
0%
9.7%Mex$902.71Mex$613.16Mex$1,265.0031
Dec ’24n/a
Mex$747.58
0%
9.8%Mex$883.93Mex$619.09Mex$1,251.0031
Nov ’24Mex$706.83
Mex$778.36
+10.1%
9.3%Mex$930.67Mex$651.83Mex$1,191.1930
Oct ’24Mex$648.00
Mex$738.49
+14.0%
9.1%Mex$878.44Mex$587.90Mex$1,130.0030
Sep ’24n/a
Mex$737.97
0%
9.1%Mex$878.49Mex$587.94Mex$1,096.0030
Aug ’24Mex$635.00
Mex$729.78
+14.9%
9.1%Mex$866.67Mex$573.28Mex$993.0030
Jul ’24Mex$721.08
Mex$720.26
-0.1%
9.5%Mex$807.29Mex$532.47Mex$1,140.0030
Jun ’24Mex$738.72
Mex$726.29
-1.7%
9.1%Mex$825.01Mex$544.16Mex$1,049.7029
May ’24Mex$734.82
Mex$729.59
-0.7%
10.0%Mex$830.10Mex$559.41Mex$1,063.0331
Apr ’24Mex$607.74
Mex$669.64
+10.2%
8.7%Mex$768.85Mex$571.84Mex$968.2231
Mar ’24n/a
Mex$666.50
0%
8.8%Mex$767.32Mex$570.71n/a32
Feb ’24Mex$620.15
Mex$664.08
+7.1%
7.8%Mex$750.77Mex$544.31Mex$836.0632
Jan ’24n/a
Mex$693.44
0%
7.5%Mex$779.34Mex$588.40n/a32
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 31 Analysts
Mex$1.37k
Fair Value
14.3% undervalued intrinsic discount
31
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/01/10 13:38
End of Day Share Price 2025/01/10 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. is covered by 66 analysts. 33 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
John StaszakArgus Research Company
David TarantinoBaird
Ishan MajumdarBaptista Research