Chipotle Mexican Grill Valuation
Is CMG * undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
0/6Valuation Score 0/6
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of CMG * when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: CMG * (MX$53151.5) is trading above our estimate of fair value (MX$24689.5)
Significantly Below Fair Value: CMG * is trading above our estimate of fair value.
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CMG *?
Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.
| What is CMG *'s n/a Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| n/a | 0x |
| n/a | n/a |
| Market Cap | US$85.48b |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | 8.6x |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | 44x |
| PEG Ratio | 4.1x |
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers
How does CMG *'s PE Ratio compare to its peers?
| Company | Forward PE | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 31.3x | ||
ALSEA * Alsea. de | 25.1x | 24.8% | Mex$60.5b |
SBUX Starbucks | 23.3x | 11.5% | US$99.9b |
3690 Meituan | 47.9x | 38.0% | HK$717.1b |
CPG Compass Group | 28.9x | 11.6% | UK£37.9b |
CMG * Chipotle Mexican Grill | 65.9x | 15.9% | Mex$85.5b |
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: CMG * is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (65.9x) compared to the peer average (30.9x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry
How does CMG *'s PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the South American Hospitality Industry?
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: CMG * is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (65.9x) compared to the Global Hospitality industry average (20.5x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is CMG *'s PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PE Ratio | 65.9x |
| Fair PE Ratio | n/a |
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate CMG *'s Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
| Date | Share Price | Average 1Y Price Target | Dispersion | High | Low | 1Y Actual price | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | Mex$53,151.50 | Mex$54,494.96 +2.5% | 11.2% | Mex$61,959.96 | Mex$33,561.65 | n/a | 30 |
| Apr ’25 | Mex$48,411.14 | Mex$46,571.06 -3.8% | 10.7% | Mex$54,859.86 | Mex$32,417.19 | n/a | 30 |
| Mar ’25 | n/a | Mex$46,659.30 0% | 9.2% | Mex$53,004.42 | Mex$33,341.49 | n/a | 30 |
| Feb ’25 | Mex$41,803.00 | Mex$41,679.63 -0.3% | 11.2% | Mex$51,476.10 | Mex$30,885.66 | n/a | 30 |
| Jan ’25 | n/a | Mex$38,106.20 0% | 9.7% | Mex$45,135.60 | Mex$30,658.14 | n/a | 31 |
| Dec ’24 | n/a | Mex$37,379.07 0% | 9.8% | Mex$44,196.29 | Mex$30,954.60 | n/a | 31 |
| Nov ’24 | Mex$35,341.37 | Mex$38,753.25 +9.7% | 9.3% | Mex$46,336.59 | Mex$32,453.64 | n/a | 30 |
| Oct ’24 | Mex$32,400.00 | Mex$36,924.52 +14.0% | 9.1% | Mex$43,921.81 | Mex$29,395.14 | n/a | 30 |
| Sep ’24 | n/a | Mex$36,898.41 0% | 9.1% | Mex$43,924.64 | Mex$29,397.04 | n/a | 30 |
| Aug ’24 | Mex$31,750.00 | Mex$36,488.98 +14.9% | 9.1% | Mex$43,333.54 | Mex$28,664.21 | n/a | 30 |
| Jul ’24 | Mex$36,054.00 | Mex$36,013.19 -0.1% | 9.5% | Mex$40,364.54 | Mex$26,623.42 | n/a | 30 |
| Jun ’24 | Mex$36,935.97 | Mex$36,314.35 -1.7% | 9.1% | Mex$41,250.49 | Mex$27,207.77 | n/a | 29 |
| May ’24 | Mex$36,740.78 | Mex$36,479.47 -0.7% | 10.0% | Mex$41,504.88 | Mex$27,970.68 | n/a | 31 |
| Apr ’24 | Mex$30,387.00 | Mex$33,482.00 +10.2% | 8.7% | Mex$38,442.30 | Mex$28,591.92 | Mex$48,411.14 | 31 |
| Mar ’24 | n/a | Mex$33,324.80 0% | 8.8% | Mex$38,366.23 | Mex$28,535.35 | n/a | 32 |
| Feb ’24 | Mex$31,007.57 | Mex$33,203.89 +7.1% | 7.8% | Mex$37,538.40 | Mex$27,215.34 | Mex$41,803.00 | 32 |
| Jan ’24 | n/a | Mex$34,671.93 0% | 7.5% | Mex$38,966.80 | Mex$29,419.93 | n/a | 32 |
| Dec ’23 | Mex$30,900.00 | Mex$34,740.30 +12.4% | 10.0% | Mex$48,386.50 | Mex$29,225.45 | n/a | 32 |
| Nov ’23 | Mex$29,480.00 | Mex$35,559.42 +20.6% | 10.0% | Mex$49,536.00 | Mex$29,919.74 | Mex$35,341.37 | 32 |
| Oct ’23 | Mex$30,325.00 | Mex$36,072.83 +19.0% | 11.3% | Mex$50,464.75 | Mex$28,260.26 | Mex$32,400.00 | 32 |
| Sep ’23 | n/a | Mex$34,692.34 0% | 12.2% | Mex$49,603.00 | Mex$27,777.68 | n/a | 30 |
| Aug ’23 | Mex$31,865.00 | Mex$35,390.82 +11.1% | 12.1% | Mex$50,934.75 | Mex$28,523.46 | Mex$31,750.00 | 30 |
| Jul ’23 | n/a | Mex$36,293.71 0% | 13.7% | Mex$49,205.50 | Mex$26,275.74 | Mex$36,054.00 | 30 |
| Jun ’23 | Mex$25,972.90 | Mex$36,770.38 +41.6% | 12.9% | Mex$49,449.50 | Mex$30,263.09 | Mex$36,935.97 | 30 |
| May ’23 | Mex$30,191.46 | Mex$38,513.00 +27.6% | 11.6% | Mex$51,006.00 | Mex$31,215.67 | Mex$36,740.78 | 30 |
| Apr ’23 | Mex$31,632.24 | Mex$38,343.73 +21.2% | 10.9% | Mex$50,470.50 | Mex$30,484.18 | Mex$30,387.00 | 29 |
Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.