Alsea, S.A.B. de C.V. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Last week, you might have seen that Alsea, S.A.B. de C.V. (BMV:ALSEA) released its third-quarter result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.2% to Mex$51.56 in the past week. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at Mex$0.015, some 97% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at Mex$21b. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for Alsea. de

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Alsea. de's 13 analysts is for revenues of Mex$89.7b in 2025. This would reflect a solid 14% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to surge 70% to Mex$4.31. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of Mex$89.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of Mex$4.26 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at Mex$77.33. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Alsea. de analyst has a price target of Mex$98.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at Mex$62.90. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The period to the end of 2025 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 11% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 12% annual growth over the past five years. Juxtapose this against our data, which suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 13% per year. It's clear that while Alsea. de's revenue growth is expected to continue on its current trajectory, it's only expected to grow in line with the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at Mex$77.33, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Alsea. de analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Alsea. de that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.