Alsea, S.A.B. de C.V. (BMV:ALSEA) Second-Quarter Results: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year

Alsea, S.A.B. de C.V. (BMV:ALSEA) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 8.5% to Mex$55.40 in the week after its latest quarterly results. It was an okay report, and revenues came in at Mex$19b, approximately in line with analyst estimates leading up to the results announcement. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Alsea. de

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Alsea. de's twelve analysts is for revenues of Mex$81.3b in 2024. This reflects a credible 5.5% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to accumulate 10.0% to Mex$3.37. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of Mex$81.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of Mex$3.64 in 2024. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at Mex$79.99, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Alsea. de analyst has a price target of Mex$98.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at Mex$65.00. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Alsea. de's past performance and to peers in the same industry. The period to the end of 2024 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 11% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 11% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 13% annually. So although Alsea. de is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's only growing at about the rate of the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Alsea. de. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Alsea. de. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Alsea. de analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for Alsea. de you should be aware of, and 1 of them is a bit concerning.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com