Timken Valuation
Is TKR * undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
4/6Valuation Score 4/6
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of TKR * when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: TKR * (MX$1650) is trading below our estimate of fair value (MX$3019.05)
Significantly Below Fair Value: TKR * is trading below fair value by more than 20%.
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for TKR *?
Key metric: As TKR * is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.
| What is TKR *'s PE Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| PE Ratio | 15.8x |
| Earnings | US$340.20m |
| Market Cap | US$5.37b |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | 1.6x |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | 9.3x |
| PEG Ratio | 1x |
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers
How does TKR *'s PE Ratio compare to its peers?
| Company | Forward PE | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 29.9x | ||
IDEAL B-1 Impulsora del Desarrollo y el Empleo en América Latina. de | 13.6x | n/a | Mex$110.6b |
LAMOSA * Grupo Lamosa. de | 69.7x | 38.6% | Mex$39.8b |
GCARSO A1 Grupo Carso. de | 18.7x | 15.6% | Mex$265.6b |
IMI IMI | 17.6x | 12.0% | UK£4.5b |
TKR * Timken | 15.8x | 15.4% | Mex$5.4b |
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: TKR * is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.8x) compared to the peer average (29.9x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry
How does TKR *'s PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Machinery Industry?
| 31 Companies | Price / Earnings | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Companies | Estimated Growth | Market Cap | |
|---|---|---|---|
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: TKR * is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.8x) compared to the Global Machinery industry average (21.9x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is TKR *'s PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PE Ratio | 15.8x |
| Fair PE Ratio | n/a |
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate TKR *'s Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
| Date | Share Price | Average 1Y Price Target | Dispersion | High | Low | 1Y Actual price | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | n/a | Mex$1,786.20 0% | 8.1% | Mex$2,032.57 | Mex$1,498.76 | n/a | 11 |
| Nov ’25 | n/a | Mex$1,839.97 0% | 7.5% | Mex$2,073.82 | Mex$1,694.95 | n/a | 11 |
| Oct ’25 | n/a | Mex$1,840.56 0% | 8.2% | Mex$2,073.87 | Mex$1,655.11 | n/a | 10 |
| Sep ’25 | n/a | Mex$1,805.30 0% | 8.1% | Mex$2,025.37 | Mex$1,616.40 | n/a | 10 |
| Aug ’25 | n/a | Mex$1,752.06 0% | 7.7% | Mex$1,952.30 | Mex$1,558.08 | n/a | 12 |
| Jul ’25 | n/a | Mex$1,554.42 0% | 7.7% | Mex$1,733.62 | Mex$1,383.56 | n/a | 12 |
| Jun ’25 | n/a | Mex$1,554.42 0% | 7.7% | Mex$1,733.62 | Mex$1,383.56 | n/a | 12 |
| May ’25 | n/a | Mex$1,545.78 0% | 7.0% | Mex$1,735.82 | Mex$1,412.48 | n/a | 12 |
| Apr ’25 | n/a | Mex$1,447.50 0% | 8.2% | Mex$1,673.41 | Mex$1,238.32 | n/a | 12 |
| Mar ’25 | n/a | Mex$1,469.11 0% | 7.4% | Mex$1,621.28 | Mex$1,262.89 | n/a | 12 |
| Feb ’25 | n/a | Mex$1,447.14 0% | 9.4% | Mex$1,666.14 | Mex$1,219.55 | n/a | 12 |
| Jan ’25 | Mex$1,368.50 | Mex$1,493.98 +9.2% | 15.7% | Mex$2,058.30 | Mex$1,149.22 | n/a | 10 |
| Dec ’24 | n/a | Mex$1,543.93 0% | 16.4% | Mex$2,077.03 | Mex$1,159.68 | n/a | 10 |
| Nov ’24 | n/a | Mex$1,645.86 0% | 14.6% | Mex$2,137.48 | Mex$1,318.11 | n/a | 10 |
| Oct ’24 | Mex$1,256.30 | Mex$1,620.68 +29.0% | 11.3% | Mex$2,011.19 | Mex$1,374.31 | n/a | 10 |
| Sep ’24 | Mex$1,285.03 | Mex$1,620.68 +26.1% | 11.3% | Mex$2,011.19 | Mex$1,374.31 | n/a | 10 |
| Aug ’24 | n/a | Mex$1,676.32 0% | 10.5% | Mex$2,038.08 | Mex$1,392.69 | n/a | 10 |
| Jul ’24 | Mex$1,519.00 | Mex$1,639.33 +7.9% | 11.6% | Mex$2,053.44 | Mex$1,403.18 | n/a | 10 |
| Jun ’24 | n/a | Mex$1,661.81 0% | 12.0% | Mex$2,142.32 | Mex$1,439.92 | n/a | 11 |
| May ’24 | Mex$1,366.75 | Mex$1,716.26 +25.6% | 12.0% | Mex$2,193.55 | Mex$1,438.39 | n/a | 11 |
| Apr ’24 | Mex$1,420.00 | Mex$1,731.97 +22.0% | 11.2% | Mex$2,196.89 | Mex$1,422.58 | n/a | 11 |
| Mar ’24 | n/a | Mex$1,750.74 0% | 11.0% | Mex$2,241.88 | Mex$1,451.71 | n/a | 11 |
| Feb ’24 | Mex$1,531.66 | Mex$1,603.50 +4.7% | 15.3% | Mex$2,296.58 | Mex$1,317.71 | n/a | 11 |
| Jan ’24 | n/a | Mex$1,620.43 0% | 11.5% | Mex$2,079.56 | Mex$1,386.37 | Mex$1,368.50 | 11 |
| Dec ’23 | Mex$1,400.00 | Mex$1,554.83 +11.1% | 13.7% | Mex$2,052.37 | Mex$1,211.88 | n/a | 11 |
| Nov ’23 | Mex$1,363.00 | Mex$1,549.52 +13.7% | 13.5% | Mex$2,078.62 | Mex$1,227.38 | n/a | 11 |
Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.
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