Northrop Grumman Valuation
Is NOC * undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
2/6Valuation Score 2/6
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of NOC * when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: NOC * (MX$10190) is trading below our estimate of fair value (MX$11048.56)
Significantly Below Fair Value: NOC * is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for NOC *?
Key metric: As NOC * is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.
| What is NOC *'s PE Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| PE Ratio | 30x |
| Earnings | US$2.38b |
| Market Cap | US$71.26b |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | 2.1x |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | 19.2x |
| PEG Ratio | 2.5x |
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers
How does NOC *'s PE Ratio compare to its peers?
| Company | Forward PE | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 27.3x | ||
GD General Dynamics | 21.3x | 9.2% | US$77.4b |
TDG TransDigm Group | 47.4x | 17.3% | US$71.0b |
GCARSO A1 Grupo Carso. de | 19.6x | 15.6% | Mex$273.0b |
BA. BAE Systems | 21x | 7.7% | UK£38.6b |
NOC * Northrop Grumman | 30x | 12.1% | Mex$71.3b |
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: NOC * is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (30x) compared to the peer average (27.3x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry
How does NOC *'s PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Aerospace & Defense Industry?
| 6 Companies | Price / Earnings | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Companies | Estimated Growth | Market Cap | |
|---|---|---|---|
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: NOC * is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (30x) compared to the Global Aerospace & Defense industry average (38.6x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is NOC *'s PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PE Ratio | 30x |
| Fair PE Ratio | n/a |
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate NOC *'s Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
| Date | Share Price | Average 1Y Price Target | Dispersion | High | Low | 1Y Actual price | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | Mex$10,190.00 | Mex$11,676.57 +14.6% | 7.7% | Mex$13,287.14 | Mex$9,257.61 | n/a | 23 |
| Nov ’25 | Mex$10,300.09 | Mex$11,252.99 +9.3% | 8.3% | Mex$12,870.29 | Mex$8,967.17 | n/a | 22 |
| Oct ’25 | n/a | Mex$10,271.42 0% | 10.0% | Mex$12,042.50 | Mex$7,806.05 | n/a | 22 |
| Sep ’25 | Mex$10,269.91 | Mex$9,796.74 -4.6% | 9.4% | Mex$11,394.75 | Mex$7,496.05 | n/a | 22 |
| Aug ’25 | Mex$8,850.00 | Mex$9,756.33 +10.2% | 9.5% | Mex$11,344.48 | Mex$7,462.98 | n/a | 21 |
| Jul ’25 | n/a | Mex$9,204.24 0% | 10.5% | Mex$10,890.62 | Mex$7,272.66 | n/a | 22 |
| Jun ’25 | n/a | Mex$8,529.31 0% | 10.3% | Mex$9,919.90 | Mex$6,715.01 | n/a | 21 |
| May ’25 | Mex$8,265.00 | Mex$8,511.59 +3.0% | 10.3% | Mex$9,956.70 | Mex$6,739.92 | n/a | 22 |
| Apr ’25 | n/a | Mex$8,270.31 0% | 11.4% | Mex$10,466.44 | Mex$6,552.16 | n/a | 22 |
| Mar ’25 | n/a | Mex$8,305.27 0% | 11.6% | Mex$10,495.96 | Mex$6,570.64 | n/a | 22 |
| Feb ’25 | Mex$7,452.51 | Mex$8,409.28 +12.8% | 11.6% | Mex$10,591.84 | Mex$6,630.66 | n/a | 22 |
| Jan ’25 | n/a | Mex$8,543.37 0% | 11.1% | Mex$10,558.26 | Mex$6,558.14 | n/a | 22 |
| Dec ’24 | n/a | Mex$8,797.91 0% | 11.1% | Mex$10,760.96 | Mex$6,684.05 | n/a | 21 |
| Nov ’24 | Mex$8,572.81 | Mex$9,063.84 +5.7% | 11.1% | Mex$11,088.33 | Mex$6,887.38 | Mex$10,300.09 | 21 |
| Oct ’24 | n/a | Mex$8,747.14 0% | 11.5% | Mex$10,875.35 | Mex$6,790.46 | n/a | 20 |
| Sep ’24 | n/a | Mex$8,344.55 0% | 11.4% | Mex$10,327.94 | Mex$6,448.67 | Mex$10,269.91 | 19 |
| Aug ’24 | Mex$7,576.79 | Mex$8,361.62 +10.4% | 11.3% | Mex$10,297.81 | Mex$6,429.85 | Mex$8,850.00 | 19 |
| Jul ’24 | n/a | Mex$8,585.72 0% | 13.3% | Mex$11,208.36 | Mex$6,571.01 | n/a | 19 |
| Jun ’24 | n/a | Mex$8,886.09 0% | 13.4% | Mex$11,585.90 | Mex$6,792.35 | n/a | 19 |
| May ’24 | Mex$8,184.85 | Mex$9,204.76 +12.5% | 13.0% | Mex$11,776.83 | Mex$6,904.28 | Mex$8,265.00 | 19 |
| Apr ’24 | n/a | Mex$9,421.26 0% | 13.4% | Mex$12,082.39 | Mex$6,769.83 | n/a | 19 |
| Mar ’24 | Mex$8,754.24 | Mex$9,774.87 +11.7% | 13.8% | Mex$12,545.80 | Mex$7,029.48 | n/a | 18 |
| Feb ’24 | Mex$8,230.00 | Mex$9,617.75 +16.9% | 14.0% | Mex$12,196.76 | Mex$6,833.91 | Mex$7,452.51 | 18 |
| Jan ’24 | n/a | Mex$11,062.66 0% | 12.5% | Mex$13,829.62 | Mex$7,270.43 | n/a | 19 |
| Dec ’23 | Mex$10,120.00 | Mex$10,683.24 +5.6% | 12.8% | Mex$13,532.61 | Mex$7,114.29 | n/a | 18 |
| Nov ’23 | Mex$10,580.33 | Mex$10,599.45 +0.2% | 13.1% | Mex$13,803.93 | Mex$7,256.92 | Mex$8,572.81 | 18 |
Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.
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