Stock Analysis

Grupo Financiero Banorte. de (BMV:GFNORTEO) jumps 4.0% this week, though earnings growth is still tracking behind five-year shareholder returns

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BMV:GFNORTE O

Stock pickers are generally looking for stocks that will outperform the broader market. And in our experience, buying the right stocks can give your wealth a significant boost. For example, the Grupo Financiero Banorte, S.A.B. de C.V. (BMV:GFNORTEO) share price is up 80% in the last 5 years, clearly besting the market return of around 30% (ignoring dividends). On the other hand, the more recent gains haven't been so impressive, with shareholders gaining just 26% , including dividends .

After a strong gain in the past week, it's worth seeing if longer term returns have been driven by improving fundamentals.

Check out our latest analysis for Grupo Financiero Banorte. de

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During five years of share price growth, Grupo Financiero Banorte. de achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 13% per year. That makes the EPS growth particularly close to the yearly share price growth of 12%. Therefore one could conclude that sentiment towards the shares hasn't morphed very much. Indeed, it would appear the share price is reacting to the EPS.

You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

BMV:GFNORTE O Earnings Per Share Growth December 12th 2023

We know that Grupo Financiero Banorte. de has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? This free report showing analyst revenue forecasts should help you figure out if the EPS growth can be sustained.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, Grupo Financiero Banorte. de's TSR for the last 5 years was 137%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

We're pleased to report that Grupo Financiero Banorte. de shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 26% over one year. And that does include the dividend. Since the one-year TSR is better than the five-year TSR (the latter coming in at 19% per year), it would seem that the stock's performance has improved in recent times. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Grupo Financiero Banorte. de , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

We will like Grupo Financiero Banorte. de better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Mexican exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.