Nemak, S. A. B. de C. V. Just Missed EPS By 69%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Investors in Nemak, S. A. B. de C. V. (BMV:NEMAKA) had a good week, as its shares rose 6.5% to close at Mex$2.47 following the release of its full-year results. Results overall were not great, with earnings of US$0.0083 per share falling drastically short of analyst expectations. Meanwhile revenues hit US$4.9b and were slightly better than forecasts. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

View our latest analysis for Nemak S. A. B. de C. V

Following last week's earnings report, Nemak S. A. B. de C. V's four analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be US$4.98b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to bounce 254% to US$0.03. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$4.96b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.033 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target fell 8.1% to Mex$6.25, with the analysts clearly linking lower forecast earnings to the performance of the stock price. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Nemak S. A. B. de C. V at Mex$9.50 per share, while the most bearish prices it at Mex$4.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that Nemak S. A. B. de C. V's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 1.5% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 10% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 11% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Nemak S. A. B. de C. V is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Nemak S. A. B. de C. V's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Nemak S. A. B. de C. V going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

It is also worth noting that we have found 2 warning signs for Nemak S. A. B. de C. V that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.