Stock Analysis
David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. Importantly, KCTC Co. Ltd (KRX:009070) does carry debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
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What Is KCTC's Debt?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of June 2024 KCTC had ₩225.9b of debt, an increase on ₩202.9b, over one year. However, because it has a cash reserve of ₩70.0b, its net debt is less, at about ₩155.9b.
How Strong Is KCTC's Balance Sheet?
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that KCTC had liabilities of ₩224.3b due within 12 months and liabilities of ₩248.4b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of ₩70.0b as well as receivables valued at ₩142.2b due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling ₩260.5b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
This deficit casts a shadow over the ₩138.3b company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. After all, KCTC would likely require a major re-capitalisation if it had to pay its creditors today.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
KCTC has net debt worth 2.1 times EBITDA, which isn't too much, but its interest cover looks a bit on the low side, with EBIT at only 3.1 times the interest expense. While that doesn't worry us too much, it does suggest the interest payments are somewhat of a burden. KCTC grew its EBIT by 3.4% in the last year. That's far from incredible but it is a good thing, when it comes to paying off debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since KCTC will need earnings to service that debt. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Over the last three years, KCTC reported free cash flow worth 16% of its EBIT, which is really quite low. For us, cash conversion that low sparks a little paranoia about is ability to extinguish debt.
Our View
Mulling over KCTC's attempt at staying on top of its total liabilities, we're certainly not enthusiastic. But at least its EBIT growth rate is not so bad. Overall, it seems to us that KCTC's balance sheet is really quite a risk to the business. For this reason we're pretty cautious about the stock, and we think shareholders should keep a close eye on its liquidity. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. We've identified 4 warning signs with KCTC (at least 1 which is significant) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About KOSE:A009070
KCTC
Operates as a logistics company in South Korea and internationally.