Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of Hunesion Co.,Ltd (KOSDAQ:290270)

How far off is Hunesion Co.,Ltd (KOSDAQ:290270) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example!

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for HunesionLtd

Is HunesionLtd fairly valued?

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
Levered FCF (₩, Millions)	₩2.51b	₩2.89b	₩3.22b	₩3.52b	₩3.79b	₩4.03b	₩4.26b	₩4.47b	₩4.68b	₩4.88b
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Est @ 19.92%	Est @ 15.05%	Est @ 11.64%	Est @ 9.25%	Est @ 7.58%	Est @ 6.41%	Est @ 5.59%	Est @ 5.02%	Est @ 4.62%	Est @ 4.34%
Present Value (₩, Millions) Discounted @ 9.4%	₩2.3k	₩2.4k	₩2.5k	₩2.5k	₩2.4k	₩2.4k	₩2.3k	₩2.2k	₩2.1k	₩2.0k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = ₩23b

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 3.7%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 9.4%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₀ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = ₩4.9b× (1 + 3.7%) ÷ (9.4%– 3.7%) = ₩88b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= ₩88b÷ ( 1 + 9.4%)¹⁰= ₩36b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is ₩59b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of ₩6.0k, the company appears about fair value at a 3.0% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

Important assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at HunesionLtd as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 9.4%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.960. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Next Steps:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For HunesionLtd, we've put together three additional factors you should further examine:

1. Risks: For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for HunesionLtd (1 is a bit concerning!) that you should be aware of before investing here.
2. Future Earnings: How does A290270's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every South Korean stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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