Optimistic Investors Push Mecaro Co., Ltd. (KOSDAQ:241770) Shares Up 28% But Growth Is Lacking

Mecaro Co., Ltd. (KOSDAQ:241770) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 28% after a shaky period beforehand. The bad news is that even after the stocks recovery in the last 30 days, shareholders are still underwater by about 4.7% over the last year.

Following the firm bounce in price, given close to half the companies operating in Korea's Semiconductor industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 2.1x, you may consider Mecaro as a stock to potentially avoid with its 2.7x P/S ratio. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/S at face value as there may be an explanation why it's as high as it is.

View our latest analysis for Mecaro

How Mecaro Has Been Performing

For example, consider that Mecaro's financial performance has been poor lately as its revenue has been in decline. Perhaps the market believes the company can do enough to outperform the rest of the industry in the near future, which is keeping the P/S ratio high. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Mecaro, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The High P/S Ratio?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, Mecaro would need to produce impressive growth in excess of the industry.

In reviewing the last year of financials, we were disheartened to see the company's revenues fell to the tune of 25%. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk revenue by 44% in aggregate. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 81% shows it's an unpleasant look.

With this information, we find it concerning that Mecaro is trading at a P/S higher than the industry. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

The Key Takeaway

Mecaro's P/S is on the rise since its shares have risen strongly. It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

Our examination of Mecaro revealed its shrinking revenue over the medium-term isn't resulting in a P/S as low as we expected, given the industry is set to grow. With a revenue decline on investors' minds, the likelihood of a souring sentiment is quite high which could send the P/S back in line with what we'd expect. Should recent medium-term revenue trends persist, it would pose a significant risk to existing shareholders' investments and prospective investors will have a hard time accepting the current value of the stock.

Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 4 warning signs for Mecaro (2 are a bit concerning) you should be aware of.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So if growing profitability aligns with your idea of a great company, take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.