Stock Analysis

Seegene (KOSDAQ:096530) Is Growing Earnings But Are They A Good Guide?

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KOSDAQ:A096530
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Broadly speaking, profitable businesses are less risky than unprofitable ones. Having said that, sometimes statutory profit levels are not a good guide to ongoing profitability, because some short term one-off factor has impacted profit levels. Today we'll focus on whether this year's statutory profits are a good guide to understanding Seegene (KOSDAQ:096530).

It's good to see that over the last twelve months Seegene made a profit of ₩55.3b on revenue of ₩176.2b. At the risk of seeming quaint, we do like to at least examine profit, even when a stock is improving revenue and considered a 'growth stock'. In the chart below, you can see that its profit and revenue have both grown over the last three years.

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KOSDAQ:A096530 Earnings and Revenue History June 30th 2020
KOSDAQ:A096530 Earnings and Revenue History June 30th 2020

Of course, it is only sensible to look beyond the statutory profits and question how well those numbers represent the sustainable earnings power of the business. As a result, we think it's well worth considering what Seegene's cashflow (when compared to its earnings) can tell us about the nature of its statutory profit. That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

Examining Cashflow Against Seegene's Earnings

As finance nerds would already know, the accrual ratio from cashflow is a key measure for assessing how well a company's free cash flow (FCF) matches its profit. The accrual ratio subtracts the FCF from the profit for a given period, and divides the result by the average operating assets of the company over that time. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.

That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.

Seegene has an accrual ratio of 0.39 for the year to March 2020. That means it didn't generate anywhere near enough free cash flow to match its profit. Statistically speaking, that's a real negative for future earnings. Indeed, in the last twelve months it reported free cash flow of ₩10b, which is significantly less than its profit of ₩55.3b. Seegene shareholders will no doubt be hoping that its free cash flow bounces back next year, since it was down over the last twelve months.

Our Take On Seegene's Profit Performance

As we have made quite clear, we're a bit worried that Seegene didn't back up the last year's profit with free cashflow. For this reason, we think that Seegene's statutory profits may be a bad guide to its underlying earnings power, and might give investors an overly positive impression of the company. But the good news is that its EPS growth over the last three years has been very impressive. The goal of this article has been to assess how well we can rely on the statutory earnings to reflect the company's potential, but there is plenty more to consider. So while earnings quality is important, it's equally important to consider the risks facing Seegene at this point in time. To help with this, we've discovered 3 warning signs (2 make us uncomfortable!) that you ought to be aware of before buying any shares in Seegene.

Today we've zoomed in on a single data point to better understand the nature of Seegene's profit. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying to be useful.

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About KOSDAQ:A096530

Seegene

Seegene, Inc. manufactures and sells molecular diagnostics products worldwide.

Flawless balance sheet, good value and pays a dividend.

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