An Intrinsic Calculation For Mr. Blue Corporation (KOSDAQ:207760) Suggests It's 28% Undervalued

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Mr. Blue Corporation (KOSDAQ:207760) by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for Mr. Blue

The calculation

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
Levered FCF (₩, Millions)	₩18.6b	₩19.7b	₩20.6b	₩21.5b	₩22.4b	₩23.4b	₩24.3b	₩25.2b	₩26.2b	₩27.2b
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x3	Analyst x3	Est @ 4.81%	Est @ 4.47%	Est @ 4.23%	Est @ 4.07%	Est @ 3.95%	Est @ 3.87%	Est @ 3.81%	Est @ 3.77%
Present Value (₩, Millions) Discounted @ 8.9%	₩17.0k	₩16.6k	₩16.0k	₩15.3k	₩14.6k	₩14.0k	₩13.3k	₩12.7k	₩12.1k	₩11.6k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = ₩143b

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 3.7%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 8.9%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₀ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = ₩27b× (1 + 3.7%) ÷ (8.9%– 3.7%) = ₩537b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= ₩537b÷ ( 1 + 8.9%)¹⁰= ₩229b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is ₩372b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of ₩11k, the company appears a touch undervalued at a 28% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

Important assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Mr. Blue as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.9%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.880. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Next Steps:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. What is the reason for the share price sitting below the intrinsic value? For Mr. Blue, we've compiled three additional items you should further research:

1. Financial Health: Does A207760 have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
2. Future Earnings: How does A207760's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every South Korean stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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