Is Namsun Aluminum (KRX:008350) A Risky Investment?

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. As with many other companies Namsun Aluminum Co., Ltd. (KRX:008350) makes use of debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?

When Is Debt A Problem?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.

See our latest analysis for Namsun Aluminum

How Much Debt Does Namsun Aluminum Carry?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Namsun Aluminum had debt of ₩26.6b at the end of September 2020, a reduction from ₩43.1b over a year. However, it also had ₩15.8b in cash, and so its net debt is ₩10.7b.

How Strong Is Namsun Aluminum's Balance Sheet?

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Namsun Aluminum had liabilities of ₩59.9b due within 12 months and liabilities of ₩42.7b due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had ₩15.8b in cash and ₩71.6b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by ₩15.2b.

Since publicly traded Namsun Aluminum shares are worth a total of ₩500.8b, it seems unlikely that this level of liabilities would be a major threat. But there are sufficient liabilities that we would certainly recommend shareholders continue to monitor the balance sheet, going forward.

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

Namsun Aluminum's net debt is only 0.93 times its EBITDA. And its EBIT easily covers its interest expense, being 25.4 times the size. So you could argue it is no more threatened by its debt than an elephant is by a mouse. It is just as well that Namsun Aluminum's load is not too heavy, because its EBIT was down 29% over the last year. When a company sees its earnings tank, it can sometimes find its relationships with its lenders turn sour. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is Namsun Aluminum's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.

Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. During the last three years, Namsun Aluminum generated free cash flow amounting to a very robust 86% of its EBIT, more than we'd expect. That positions it well to pay down debt if desirable to do so.

Our View

The good news is that Namsun Aluminum's demonstrated ability to cover its interest expense with its EBIT delights us like a fluffy puppy does a toddler. But we must concede we find its EBIT growth rate has the opposite effect. All these things considered, it appears that Namsun Aluminum can comfortably handle its current debt levels. On the plus side, this leverage can boost shareholder returns, but the potential downside is more risk of loss, so it's worth monitoring the balance sheet. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. To that end, you should learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Namsun Aluminum (including 1 which is concerning) .

Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.

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