Assessing ANA Holdings (TSE:9202) Valuation Following Upgraded Earnings Guidance and Stronger Outlook

ANA Holdings (TSE:9202) has just raised its full-year earnings guidance, lifting projections across operating revenue, operating income, and net income for the fiscal year ending March 2026. This signals stronger operational momentum.

See our latest analysis for ANA Holdings.

ANA Holdings’ upbeat guidance comes as its share price has gained 4.05% over the past day and moved steadily higher in recent weeks, suggesting growing investor confidence. While the one-year total shareholder return sits at a modest 1.15%, the longer five-year total return of 33.01% hints at a company with slow-burning, but persistent, momentum building beneath the surface.

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With shares trading below analyst price targets even after this guidance hike, investors may wonder whether ANA Holdings is still undervalued or if the market has already factored in its next phase of growth.

Price-to-Earnings of 9.1x: Is it justified?

With ANA Holdings trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 9.1x, the stock today appears attractively valued against its last close of ¥2,889. The P/E sits below the market average, flagging potential relative value.

The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors are willing to pay per share for a yen of the company’s earnings. For a mature airline such as ANA Holdings, this metric is crucial as it reflects not only current profitability but also what investors expect for the future.

This multiple is noticeably below both the broader Japanese market average of 14.4x and the Asian Airlines industry average of 9.7x. This suggests the market may be undervaluing ANA's earnings power. Additionally, the P/E is well beneath the estimated fair ratio of 15.5x, which highlights significant headroom if sentiment shifts or profitability accelerates.

Explore the SWS fair ratio for ANA Holdings

Result: Price-to-Earnings of 9.1x (UNDERVALUED)

However, slower annual net income growth and ongoing market undervaluation could both challenge ANA Holdings’ positive momentum in the months ahead.

Find out about the key risks to this ANA Holdings narrative.

Another View: The SWS DCF Model Tells a Different Story

While the price-to-earnings ratio casts ANA Holdings as undervalued, our SWS DCF model provides a more cautious outlook. According to this approach, ANA is trading above its estimated fair value of ¥2,206.91, which points toward possible overvaluation if future cash flows do not meet optimistic assumptions. Which view will prove right as the market digests the new guidance?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out ANA Holdings for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 843 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own ANA Holdings Narrative

If you see things differently or want fresh insights from your own research, you'll be surprised how quickly you can build your own view. Do it your way

A great starting point for your ANA Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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