Japan Airlines Co., Ltd. Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

As you might know, Japan Airlines Co., Ltd. (TSE:9201) recently reported its third-quarter numbers. Japan Airlines reported JP¥484b in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥94.28 beat expectations, being 9.9% higher than what the analysts expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

See our latest analysis for Japan Airlines

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Japan Airlines from ten analysts is for revenues of JP¥1.96t in 2026. If met, it would imply a reasonable 7.5% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to rise 8.7% to JP¥251. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥1.96t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥243 in 2026. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on Japan Airlines' earnings potential following these results.

The consensus price target was unchanged at JP¥3,070, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Japan Airlines, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥3,600 and the most bearish at JP¥2,600 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that Japan Airlines' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 6.0% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 16% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this to the 37 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.5% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Japan Airlines' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Japan Airlines' earnings potential next year. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥3,070, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Japan Airlines going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for Japan Airlines you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.