Nippon Express Holdings, Inc. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Last week saw the newest third-quarter earnings release from Nippon Express Holdings, Inc. (TSE:9147), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at JP¥12.25, some 44% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at JP¥637b. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Nippon Express Holdings' nine analysts is for revenues of JP¥2.67t in 2026. This reflects a credible 3.3% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to soar 124% to JP¥231. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥2.68t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥236 in 2026. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.

Check out our latest analysis for Nippon Express Holdings

The consensus price target held steady at JP¥3,620, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Nippon Express Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥4,700 and the most bearish at JP¥2,850 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that Nippon Express Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 2.7% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 4.5% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 4.0% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Nippon Express Holdings.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Nippon Express Holdings going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Nippon Express Holdings that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.