Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, Ltd. Just Missed EPS By 20%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Last week, you might have seen that Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, Ltd. (TSE:9107) released its half-yearly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.3% to JP¥2,118 in the past week. It was not a great result overall. While revenues of JP¥501b were in line with analyst predictions, earnings were less than expected, missing statutory estimates by 20% to hit JP¥61.21 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha after the latest results.

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After the latest results, the consensus from Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha's eleven analysts is for revenues of JP¥986.2b in 2026, which would reflect a measurable 2.4% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to nosedive 38% to JP¥187 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥993.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥192 in 2026. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

See our latest analysis for Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha

The consensus price target held steady at JP¥2,072, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha at JP¥2,400 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥1,290. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha shareholders.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 4.8% by the end of 2026. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 11% over the last five years. Yet aggregate analyst estimates for other companies in the industry suggest that industry revenues are forecast to decline 0.1% per year. So it's pretty clear that Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha's revenues are expected to shrink faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha. The consensus also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it is performing in line with expectations. Plus, our data suggests that Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha has 2 warning signs (and 1 which shouldn't be ignored) we think you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.