Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. As with many other companies Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, Ltd. (TSE:9104) makes use of debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
When Is Debt A Problem?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
See our latest analysis for Mitsui O.S.K. Lines
What Is Mitsui O.S.K. Lines's Net Debt?
As you can see below, at the end of December 2023, Mitsui O.S.K. Lines had JP¥1.19t of debt, up from JP¥1.10t a year ago. Click the image for more detail. On the flip side, it has JP¥138.7b in cash leading to net debt of about JP¥1.05t.
How Strong Is Mitsui O.S.K. Lines' Balance Sheet?
The latest balance sheet data shows that Mitsui O.S.K. Lines had liabilities of JP¥620.7b due within a year, and liabilities of JP¥1.01t falling due after that. Offsetting this, it had JP¥138.7b in cash and JP¥124.9b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling JP¥1.37t more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
This deficit is considerable relative to its very significant market capitalization of JP¥1.87t, so it does suggest shareholders should keep an eye on Mitsui O.S.K. Lines' use of debt. This suggests shareholders would be heavily diluted if the company needed to shore up its balance sheet in a hurry.
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
As it happens Mitsui O.S.K. Lines has a fairly concerning net debt to EBITDA ratio of 5.1 but very strong interest coverage of 1k. This means that unless the company has access to very cheap debt, that interest expense will likely grow in the future. Notably Mitsui O.S.K. Lines's EBIT was pretty flat over the last year. We would prefer to see some earnings growth, because that always helps diminish debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Mitsui O.S.K. Lines's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Happily for any shareholders, Mitsui O.S.K. Lines actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT over the last three years. That sort of strong cash generation warms our hearts like a puppy in a bumblebee suit.
Our View
Mitsui O.S.K. Lines's interest cover was a real positive on this analysis, as was its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow. But truth be told its net debt to EBITDA had us nibbling our nails. When we consider all the factors mentioned above, we do feel a bit cautious about Mitsui O.S.K. Lines's use of debt. While we appreciate debt can enhance returns on equity, we'd suggest that shareholders keep close watch on its debt levels, lest they increase. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we've spotted 4 warning signs for Mitsui O.S.K. Lines (of which 1 can't be ignored!) you should know about.
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About TSE:9104
Mitsui O.S.K. Lines
Engages in the marine transportation business in Japan and internationally.
Adequate balance sheet average dividend payer.
