Analysts Are Updating Their Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, Ltd. (TSE:9104) Estimates After Its Full-Year Results

It's been a sad week for Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, Ltd. (TSE:9104), who've watched their investment drop 11% to JP¥4,599 in the week since the company reported its full-year result. Mitsui O.S.K. Lines reported JP¥1.8t in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥1,187 beat expectations, being 4.3% higher than what the analysts expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, Mitsui O.S.K. Lines' eight analysts currently expect revenues in 2026 to be JP¥1.74t, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to tumble 48% to JP¥627 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥1.75t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥606 in 2026. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

View our latest analysis for Mitsui O.S.K. Lines

The consensus price target was unchanged at JP¥5,540, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Mitsui O.S.K. Lines at JP¥6,200 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥3,600. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Mitsui O.S.K. Lines shareholders.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 1.8% by the end of 2026. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 12% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 0.3% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Mitsui O.S.K. Lines is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Mitsui O.S.K. Lines following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Mitsui O.S.K. Lines analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 3 warning signs for Mitsui O.S.K. Lines (1 shouldn't be ignored!) that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.