Nagoya Railroad (TSE:9048) Will Pay A Larger Dividend Than Last Year At ¥30.00

Nagoya Railroad Co., Ltd. (TSE:9048) will increase its dividend from last year's comparable payment on the 27th of June to ¥30.00. This will take the dividend yield to an attractive 1.8%, providing a nice boost to shareholder returns.

View our latest analysis for Nagoya Railroad

Nagoya Railroad's Projected Earnings Seem Likely To Cover Future Distributions

While it is great to have a strong dividend yield, we should also consider whether the payment is sustainable. Prior to this announcement, Nagoya Railroad's earnings easily covered the dividend, but free cash flows were negative. With the company not bringing in any cash, paying out to shareholders is bound to become difficult at some point.

Looking forward, earnings per share is forecast to fall by 7.1% over the next year. If the dividend continues along recent trends, we estimate the payout ratio could be 17%, which we consider to be quite comfortable, with most of the company's earnings left over to grow the business in the future.

Dividend Volatility

The company's dividend history has been marked by instability, with at least one cut in the last 10 years. The annual payment during the last 10 years was ¥20.00 in 2015, and the most recent fiscal year payment was ¥30.00. This works out to be a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 4.1% a year over that time. We're glad to see the dividend has risen, but with a limited rate of growth and fluctuations in the payments the total shareholder return may be limited.

The Dividend's Growth Prospects Are Limited

Given that the dividend has been cut in the past, we need to check if earnings are growing and if that might lead to stronger dividends in the future. Nagoya Railroad hasn't seen much change in its earnings per share over the last five years. Earnings growth is slow, but on the plus side, the dividend payout ratio is low and dividends could grow faster than earnings, if the company decides to increase its payout ratio.

Our Thoughts On Nagoya Railroad's Dividend

Overall, this is probably not a great income stock, even though the dividend is being raised at the moment. With cash flows lacking, it is difficult to see how the company can sustain a dividend payment. We don't think Nagoya Railroad is a great stock to add to your portfolio if income is your focus.

It's important to note that companies having a consistent dividend policy will generate greater investor confidence than those having an erratic one. Still, investors need to consider a host of other factors, apart from dividend payments, when analysing a company. As an example, we've identified 2 warning signs for Nagoya Railroad that you should be aware of before investing. Is Nagoya Railroad not quite the opportunity you were looking for? Why not check out our selection of top dividend stocks.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.