These 4 Measures Indicate That Nishi-Nippon Railroad (TSE:9031) Is Using Debt Extensively

David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We note that Nishi-Nippon Railroad Co., Ltd. (TSE:9031) does have debt on its balance sheet. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

Why Does Debt Bring Risk?

Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.

Check out our latest analysis for Nishi-Nippon Railroad

How Much Debt Does Nishi-Nippon Railroad Carry?

As you can see below, Nishi-Nippon Railroad had JP¥316.8b of debt at March 2024, down from JP¥334.9b a year prior. However, it also had JP¥69.6b in cash, and so its net debt is JP¥247.2b.

How Healthy Is Nishi-Nippon Railroad's Balance Sheet?

According to the last reported balance sheet, Nishi-Nippon Railroad had liabilities of JP¥170.8b due within 12 months, and liabilities of JP¥320.3b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of JP¥69.6b as well as receivables valued at JP¥48.9b due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling JP¥372.7b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

This deficit casts a shadow over the JP¥180.7b company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. At the end of the day, Nishi-Nippon Railroad would probably need a major re-capitalization if its creditors were to demand repayment.

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

Strangely Nishi-Nippon Railroad has a sky high EBITDA ratio of 5.6, implying high debt, but a strong interest coverage of 1k. So either it has access to very cheap long term debt or that interest expense is going to grow! Importantly Nishi-Nippon Railroad's EBIT was essentially flat over the last twelve months. We would prefer to see some earnings growth, because that always helps diminish debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Nishi-Nippon Railroad can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, Nishi-Nippon Railroad recorded free cash flow worth 52% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.

Our View

To be frank both Nishi-Nippon Railroad's net debt to EBITDA and its track record of staying on top of its total liabilities make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. But at least it's pretty decent at covering its interest expense with its EBIT; that's encouraging. Overall, we think it's fair to say that Nishi-Nippon Railroad has enough debt that there are some real risks around the balance sheet. If all goes well, that should boost returns, but on the flip side, the risk of permanent capital loss is elevated by the debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Nishi-Nippon Railroad (of which 2 shouldn't be ignored!) you should know about.

When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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