West Japan Railway Company Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For This Year

It's been a good week for West Japan Railway Company (TSE:9021) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest first-quarter results, and the shares gained 2.7% to JP¥3,410. Revenues were JP¥427b, approximately in line with whatthe analysts expected, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) crushed expectations, coming in at JP¥105, an impressive 22% ahead of estimates. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Following the latest results, West Japan Railway's eleven analysts are now forecasting revenues of JP¥1.83t in 2026. This would be an okay 5.8% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to shrink 3.9% to JP¥259 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥1.83t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥258 in 2026. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

View our latest analysis for West Japan Railway

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at JP¥3,547. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic West Japan Railway analyst has a price target of JP¥4,400 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥2,800. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the West Japan Railway's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that West Japan Railway's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 7.9% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 13% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 2.2% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while West Japan Railway's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for West Japan Railway going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 3 warning signs for West Japan Railway (2 are concerning!) that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.