Results: Keikyu Corporation Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates

Last week saw the newest annual earnings release from Keikyu Corporation (TSE:9006), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. Keikyu missed revenue estimates by 3.8%, coming in atJP¥294b, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥88.40 beat expectations, coming in 7.5% ahead of analyst estimates. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Keikyu after the latest results.

We've discovered 2 warning signs about Keikyu. View them for free.

Following the latest results, Keikyu's four analysts are now forecasting revenues of JP¥308.6b in 2026. This would be a reasonable 5.0% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to dip 4.7% to JP¥84.38 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥311.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥87.63 in 2026. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.

See our latest analysis for Keikyu

The consensus price target held steady at JP¥1,403, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Keikyu analyst has a price target of JP¥1,530 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥1,300. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Keikyu is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Keikyu's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 5.0% annualised growth to the end of 2026 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 2.3% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 2.4% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Keikyu is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Keikyu. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥1,403, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Keikyu going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Keikyu (of which 1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.