Keikyu Corporation (TSE:9006) First-Quarter Results Just Came Out: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year

It's been a good week for Keikyu Corporation (TSE:9006) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest first-quarter results, and the shares gained 2.3% to JP¥1,620. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of JP¥73b and statutory earnings per share of JP¥88.40. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

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Following the latest results, Keikyu's four analysts are now forecasting revenues of JP¥307.9b in 2026. This would be a satisfactory 4.7% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to increase 6.7% to JP¥90.08. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥307.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥87.74 in 2026. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for Keikyu

The consensus price target was unchanged at JP¥1,498, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Keikyu, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥1,610 and the most bearish at JP¥1,380 per share. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Keikyu is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Keikyu's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Keikyu's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 6.3% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 3.9% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 2.1% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Keikyu to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Keikyu following these results. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Keikyu going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 3 warning signs for Keikyu (1 is significant!) that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.