SoftBank (TSE:9984): Revisiting Valuation as Buyback and AI Deals Sustain Market Momentum

SoftBank Group (TSE:9984) has unveiled a share repurchase program set to buy back nearly 3% of its outstanding shares through the end of October. This move comes as investors continue watching the company's active role in tech partnerships and its sustained stock momentum.

See our latest analysis for SoftBank Group.

SoftBank Group’s announcement of a sizable buyback comes fresh off an impressive rally, with momentum clearly on its side. Just in the past month, its share price returned 32.18%, and the year-to-date share price return sits at a striking 156.66%. This surge has been fueled not just by buyback buzz, but also SoftBank’s headline-making role in Asia’s tech rally and bold investments in AI infrastructure. All of these factors have driven a 1-year total shareholder return of 165.28% and an extraordinary 299.51% over three years, underlining investors’ renewed confidence in the company’s strategy and outlook.

If SoftBank’s latest moves have you curious about where momentum and leadership are converging, consider expanding your scope with See the full list for free.

After such an eye-catching rally and a major buyback announcement, the big question facing investors is whether SoftBank Group remains undervalued or if the market has already factored future growth into its share price. Is there still a real buying opportunity here, or is optimism already fully reflected in the stock?

Most Popular Narrative: 27.1% Overvalued

SoftBank Group’s current share price stands significantly higher than the narrative’s fair value estimate, suggesting the market may be pricing in extra optimism about future growth or deals. The most popular narrative weighs rapidly expanding AI ambitions and ongoing financial discipline against mounting risks and regulatory scrutiny. Here is a closer look at one of the central arguments fueling this valuation perspective.

The prevailing narrative centers on AI adoption as an unstoppable growth engine across industries. However, high valuations now may ignore the risk that normalization of interest rates and tighter funding could compress multiples for high-growth, capital-intensive private tech ventures. This could lead to lower Vision Fund investment returns and potential write-downs, reducing net margins and earnings stability.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know which bold projections underpin this fair value? The narrative leans on contrasting financial forecasts and future profit multiples rarely seen in the sector. Curious what assumptions analysts are betting on? Dive deeper to see the unexpected calculations driving this valuation.

Result: Fair Value of ¥18,644 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, SoftBank's aggressive AI investments and strategic IPO exits could rapidly boost earnings. This could potentially challenge the prevailing overvaluation narrative.

Find out about the key risks to this SoftBank Group narrative.

Build Your Own SoftBank Group Narrative

If you have your own take or want to dig into the numbers firsthand, you can shape your own view of SoftBank’s story in just a few minutes. Do it your way.

A great starting point for your SoftBank Group research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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