SoftBank Group (TSE:9984) Valuation Spotlight After Early Redemption Plan for 2056 Subordinated Notes

SoftBank Group (TSE:9984) has announced plans to redeem its 4th unsecured subordinated notes, initially due in 2056, at the earliest possible date in February 2026. This decision puts a spotlight on the company’s approach to managing its debt and liquidity.

See our latest analysis for SoftBank Group.

This announcement comes on the heels of a remarkable run for SoftBank Group. The stock’s year-to-date share price return is an impressive 145.72%, with momentum accelerating over the past quarter as investors have responded positively to the company’s debt management moves and ongoing portfolio activity. SoftBank’s one-year total shareholder return stands at 142.10%, underscoring ongoing confidence in its strategic direction and capacity to deliver long-term value even after some recent volatility.

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But with shares already surging and many investors re-evaluating SoftBank’s outlook, the big question is whether there is more upside left or if the current price already reflects the company’s future growth potential.

Most Popular Narrative: 13.7% Overvalued

With SoftBank Group’s narrative fair value of ¥19,951.8 running noticeably behind its recent close of ¥22,690, the stage is set for tension between future expectations and current momentum. This dynamic valuation gap is gaining attention as analysts update their forecasts for one of Japan’s highest-profile conglomerates.

The prevailing narrative centers on AI adoption as an unstoppable growth engine across industries, but high valuations now may ignore the risk that normalization of interest rates and tighter funding could compress multiples for high-growth, capital-intensive private tech ventures. This could lead to lower Vision Fund investment returns and potential write-downs, reducing net margins and earnings stability.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know what earnings trajectory and margin calls are at the heart of this valuation? The supporting narrative is full of bold revenue growth bets and daring profit margin shifts. Wondering which financial leaps and assumptions fuel these high expectations? The full projection could surprise you. Dive in and uncover how consensus reaches this price target.

Result: Fair Value of ¥19,951.8 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, SoftBank’s ongoing buybacks and portfolio monetization could support share price resilience if AI adoption and global earnings growth exceed current expectations.

Find out about the key risks to this SoftBank Group narrative.

Another View: Looking Through the Earnings Lens

Shifting to the company's earnings ratio, SoftBank's price-to-earnings sits at 18.3x. This is below the Asian Wireless Telecom industry average of 19.2x but above its peer average of 16.2x. In comparison, the fair ratio suggests 20.8x is a level the market might move toward, hinting at both upside and risk depending on investor sentiment.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own SoftBank Group Narrative

If you see things differently or enjoy digging into the numbers yourself, you can easily build a custom view of SoftBank’s story in just minutes with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your SoftBank Group research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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