SoftBank Group Corp. Just Beat EPS By 76%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

It's been a good week for SoftBank Group Corp. (TSE:9984) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest full-year results, and the shares gained 7.9% to JP¥7,812. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of JP¥7.2t were what the analysts expected, SoftBank Group surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of JP¥781 per share, an impressive 76% above what was forecast. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

AI is about to change healthcare. These 20 stocks are working on everything from early diagnostics to drug discovery. The best part - they are all under $10bn in marketcap - there is still time to get in early.

Following the latest results, SoftBank Group's eleven analysts are now forecasting revenues of JP¥7.50t in 2026. This would be a modest 3.6% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to plunge 43% to JP¥453 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥7.48t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥256 in 2026. Although the revenue estimates have not really changed, we can see there's been a massive increase in earnings per share expectations, suggesting that the analysts have become more bullish after the latest result.

View our latest analysis for SoftBank Group

The consensus price target was unchanged at JP¥10,990, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values SoftBank Group at JP¥13,950 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥7,780. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await SoftBank Group shareholders.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of SoftBank Group'shistorical trends, as the 3.6% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 is roughly in line with the 3.5% annual growth over the past five years. Juxtapose this against our data, which suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 3.4% per year. So although SoftBank Group is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's only growing at about the rate of the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around SoftBank Group's earnings potential next year. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for SoftBank Group going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 4 warning signs for SoftBank Group (2 are potentially serious!) that you should be aware of.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.