Could SoftBank Group's (TSE:9984) Deeper AI Push in Japan Reveal a Shift in Strategic Priorities?

• SoftBank Group and OpenAI recently announced the formation of a joint venture, 'SB OAI Japan', to bring OpenAI's 'Crystal Intelligence' AI product exclusively to the Japanese market, starting in 2026.
• This collaboration highlights a focused expansion of advanced AI applications in Japan, emphasizing the country’s growing role in global AI innovation.
• We'll now explore how this joint venture could influence SoftBank Group's investment narrative, particularly with its deeper commitment to AI development.

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SoftBank Group Investment Narrative Recap

To own shares of SoftBank Group, an investor must have conviction in the company's ability to harness value from the accelerating global shift toward AI and technology-driven assets. The recent SB OAI Japan joint venture with OpenAI is a headline-grabbing partnership, but its main impact is to reinforce the company’s AI narrative; any material effect on SoftBank’s near-term catalysts, such as portfolio IPOs or buybacks, remains limited. The biggest immediate risk continues to be the potential for softer tech IPO markets or regulatory hurdles that could restrict timely exit opportunities across SoftBank’s late-stage and public portfolio companies.

A recent announcement that stands out in relation to the OpenAI collaboration is SoftBank’s September 2025 Stargate project with OpenAI and Oracle, which aims to expand AI infrastructure capacity across Asia. This initiative aligns with SoftBank’s strategy of investing in foundational AI technologies and infrastructure, energizing the catalyst of ongoing value creation from its AI assets. As these partnerships unfold, investors will be watching the company’s ability to translate its bets into realized gains and sustained financial strength.

Yet, while these moves deepen SoftBank’s AI ambitions, investors should pay careful attention if IPO markets become less receptive or...

Read the full narrative on SoftBank Group (it's free!)

SoftBank Group's narrative projects ¥8,650.2 billion in revenue and ¥620.6 billion in earnings by 2028. This requires 5.5% yearly revenue growth and a ¥1,110.8 billion decrease in earnings from the current ¥1,731.4 billion level.

Uncover how SoftBank Group's forecasts yield a ¥19952 fair value, a 14% downside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Three private investors from the Simply Wall St Community assessed SoftBank’s fair value in a wide ¥5,771 to ¥19,951 range. Keep in mind that with exit timing and public market appetite still uncertain, expectations for near-term monetization may shift meaningfully; explore more perspectives and see how yours compares.

Explore 3 other fair value estimates on SoftBank Group - why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!

Build Your Own SoftBank Group Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your SoftBank Group research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free SoftBank Group research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate SoftBank Group's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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