Hamamatsu Photonics K.K.'s (TSE:6965) Share Price Could Signal Some Risk

With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 20.1x Hamamatsu Photonics K.K. (TSE:6965) may be sending bearish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in Japan have P/E ratios under 14x and even P/E's lower than 9x are not unusual. However, the P/E might be high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

While the market has experienced earnings growth lately, Hamamatsu Photonics K.K's earnings have gone into reverse gear, which is not great. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think this poor earnings performance will turn the corner. If not, then existing shareholders may be extremely nervous about the viability of the share price.

See our latest analysis for Hamamatsu Photonics K.K

Keen to find out how analysts think Hamamatsu Photonics K.K's future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as high as Hamamatsu Photonics K.K's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the market.

If we review the last year of earnings, dishearteningly the company's profits fell to the tune of 18%. However, a few very strong years before that means that it was still able to grow EPS by an impressive 96% in total over the last three years. So we can start by confirming that the company has generally done a very good job of growing earnings over that time, even though it had some hiccups along the way.

Looking ahead now, EPS is anticipated to climb by 2.1% per annum during the coming three years according to the eight analysts following the company. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to expand by 9.5% per annum, which is noticeably more attractive.

With this information, we find it concerning that Hamamatsu Photonics K.K is trading at a P/E higher than the market. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as this level of earnings growth is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

What We Can Learn From Hamamatsu Photonics K.K's P/E?

Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-earnings ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.

Our examination of Hamamatsu Photonics K.K's analyst forecasts revealed that its inferior earnings outlook isn't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted. When we see a weak earnings outlook with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless these conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

A lot of potential risks can sit within a company's balance sheet. Our free balance sheet analysis for Hamamatsu Photonics K.K with six simple checks will allow you to discover any risks that could be an issue.

Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than Hamamatsu Photonics K.K. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.